Zeljeznicar Sarajevo v Zrinjski prediction · Premijer Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Zeljeznicar SarajevoDrawZrinjski

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Zrinjski 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zrinjski are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 25%, draw 27%, Zrinjski 49%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Zeljeznicar Sarajevo v ZrinjskiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win25%

Draw27%

Zrinjski win49%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Grbavica

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

Zrinjski

7Days since last match8

Last match: 24 Oct · Premijer Liga

Last match: 23 Oct · Premijer Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zrinjski winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Zrinjski a 49% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.4, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo v Zrinjski~~0.88 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 30~~5 v 1

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win	25%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Zrinjski win	49%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or draw	51%	–	–
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo clean sheet	26%	–	–
Zrinjski clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.9%

0123450 10.4 14.9 9.9 4.5 1 9.7 12.1 8.5 3.9 2 4.1 5.5 3.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zeljeznicar Sarajevo down, Zrinjski across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,024 Premijer Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premijer Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.4% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Zrinjski away: 2.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.88 goals for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, 1.37 for Zrinjski. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ZRI 2–0 ZEL · ZRI 2–0 ZEL · ZEL 1–3 ZRI · ZRI 2–1 ZEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 6 Sept

ZELJEZNICAR SARAJEVO

WDDLDL2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–2

ZRINJSKI

WLWWWW2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 6–2 · 3–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zrinjski	11	+20	30
2	Borac Banja Luka	9	+10	22
3	FK Sarajevo	11	+3	18
4	Siroki Brijeg	11	0	14
5	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	11	−3	13
6	Čelik	11	−4	10
7	BSK Banja Luka	10	−4	9
8	Sloga Doboj	10	−8	9
9	Radnik Bijeljina	11	−6	8
10	Velež	9	−8	8