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Velež v Siroki Brijeg

Velež

0–0Full time

Siroki Brijeg

Premijer Liga · FRI 9 OCT · Stadion Rodjeni

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 19:31

Velež 0–0 Siroki Brijeg VELEŽ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Velež win~~51%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.879

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.771

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Velež win at 51%.
69′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Siroki Brijeg · On: M. Soldo · Off: I. Kraljevic
69′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Siroki Brijeg · On: K. Sesar · Off: I. Krstanovic
69′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Velež · On: A. Mesic · Off: N. Stojanovic
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Siroki Brijeg · On: M. Matic · Off: M. Kordic-Gruzic
69′SECOND HALF Velež 0–0 Siroki Brijeg
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Siroki Brijeg · On: M. Mourelo · Off: F. Matic
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Velež · On: S. Duranovic · Off: A. Nukic
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Velež · On: E. Mehmedovic · Off: D. Salcin
81′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Siroki Brijeg · On: M. Orsolic · Off: N. Vukancic
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Velež · On: A. Aganspahic · Off: M. Rahimic
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Velež · On: M. Besic · Off: R. Abdullah
86′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Siroki Brijeg
FTFULL TIME Velež 0–0 Siroki Brijeg
FTVelež 0–0 Siroki Brijeg · Velež win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Velež win51%

Draw25%

Siroki Brijeg win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Stadion Rodjeni

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Velež

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Ribic

7 A. Nukic

13 A. Omerovic

8 A. Hrkac

5 M. Abdallah

6 R. Abdullah

77 A. Besagic

10 D. Salcin

80 N. Stojanovic

32 B. Tatar

19 M. Rahimic

Coach · Damir Milanovic

Substitutes

22 · E. Mataradzic

55 · A. Bajric

88 · L. Ignatov

45 · K. Djuliman

91 · C. Matekovic

47 · V. Abidovic

18 · S. Duranovic

83 · M. Besic

44 · E. Mehmedovic

11 · A. Mesic

28 · A. Aganspahic

Siroki Brijeg

Formation not confirmed

51 I. Puljic

2 M. Barac

5 B. Markovina

8 M. Kordic-Gruzic

10 F. Matic

11 D. Virgili

14 N. Vukancic

30 I. Kraljevic

47 I. Krstanovic

77 R. Marijanovic

90 T. Tomic

Coach · Marijo Tot

Substitutes

43 · E. Ciban

3 · M. Soldo

4 · B. Prusina

9 · L. Guedes

18 · M. Matic

19 · F. Jelcic

26 · M. Orsolic

29 · M. Hrkac

33 · I. Jelic

44 · K. Sesar

80 · M. Mourelo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Velež

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Ribic

7 A. Nukic

13 A. Omerovic

8 A. Hrkac

5 M. Abdallah

6 R. Abdullah

77 A. Besagic

10 D. Salcin

80 N. Stojanovic

32 B. Tatar

19 M. Rahimic

Coach · Damir Milanovic

Substitutes

22 · E. Mataradzic

55 · A. Bajric

88 · L. Ignatov

45 · K. Djuliman

91 · C. Matekovic

47 · V. Abidovic

18 · S. Duranovic

83 · M. Besic

44 · E. Mehmedovic

11 · A. Mesic

28 · A. Aganspahic

Siroki Brijeg

Formation not confirmed

51 I. Puljic

2 M. Barac

5 B. Markovina

8 M. Kordic-Gruzic

10 F. Matic

11 D. Virgili

14 N. Vukancic

30 I. Kraljevic

47 I. Krstanovic

77 R. Marijanovic

90 T. Tomic

Coach · Marijo Tot

Substitutes

43 · E. Ciban

3 · M. Soldo

4 · B. Prusina

9 · L. Guedes

18 · M. Matic

19 · F. Jelcic

26 · M. Orsolic

29 · M. Hrkac

33 · I. Jelic

44 · K. Sesar

80 · M. Mourelo

Our number · velež winPublished 9 Oct 17:06

51% The market44%

Us51%

~~Market~~44%

We make Velež a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · velež win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Velež win	51%	44%	+8
Draw	25%	29%	−4
Siroki Brijeg win	24%	27%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	42%	42%	0
Both teams to score	44%	48%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	67%	67%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	23%	−2
Velež or draw	76%	73%	+4
Velež clean sheet	41%	–	–
Siroki Brijeg clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.5%

0123450 9.0 9.1 3.8 1 14.5 11.5 5.4 2 10.1 8.9 4.0 3 5.0 4.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Velež down, Siroki Brijeg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,012 Premijer Liga matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premijer Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.0% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

16 previous meetings, 2.62 goals a meeting; 6 of 16 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Velež at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Siroki Brijeg away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Velež, 0.89 for Siroki Brijeg. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

16 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 16

~~Both scored~~7 of 16

~~Last meetings~~VEL 3–0 SIR · SIR 1–0 VEL · VEL 1–0 SIR · SIR 1–3 VEL

Form · last six in Premijer Liga

VELEŽ

WLDLWL2–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–2

SIROKI BRIJEG

WDLLDL2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zrinjski	8	+12	21
2	Borac Banja Luka	8	+8	19
3	FK Sarajevo	8	+1	13
4	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	8	+1	12
5	Siroki Brijeg	8	−1	9
6	Sloga Doboj	8	−3	9
7	Čelik	8	−1	8
8	BSK Banja Luka	8	−2	8
9	Velež	8	−8	7
10	Radnik Bijeljina	8	−7	4