Velež v BSK Banja Luka prediction · Premijer Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VeležDrawBSK Banja Luka

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Velež 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Velež are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Velež 55%, draw 24%, BSK Banja Luka 21%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Velež v BSK Banja LukaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Velež win55%

Draw24%

BSK Banja Luka win21%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadion Rodjeni

RefereeI. Peljto

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Velež

BSK Banja Luka

16Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Premijer Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · Premijer Liga

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	BSK Banja Luka	10	−4	9
10	Velež	9	−8	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · velež winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

55% The market54%

Us55%

~~Market~~54%

We make Velež a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Velež v BSK Banja Luka~~1.63 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 9~~10 v 6

~~The market · Velež win~~54% · ours 55%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Velež win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Velež win	55%	54%	+1
Draw	24%	26%	−2
BSK Banja Luka win	21%	19%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	46%	44%	+2
Both teams to score	46%	46%	0
Over 1.5 goals	71%	67%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	24%	+1
Velež or draw	79%	81%	−2
Velež clean sheet	42%	–	–
BSK Banja Luka clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 8.0 7.8 3.3 1 13.7 11.0 5.1 2 10.6 9.1 4.1 3 5.8 5.0 2.2 4 2.5 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Velež down, BSK Banja Luka across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,022 Premijer Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premijer Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Velež at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). BSK Banja Luka away: 0.60 scored, 1.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Velež, 0.88 for BSK Banja Luka. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BSK 2–0 VEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 28 Aug

VELEŽ

LDLWLD0–3 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–0

BSK BANJA LUKA

LWDDLD1–3 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 4–4 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zrinjski	11	+20	30
2	Borac Banja Luka	9	+10	22
3	FK Sarajevo	10	+1	15
4	Siroki Brijeg	10	0	13
5	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	10	−1	13
6	BSK Banja Luka	10	−4	9
7	Čelik	10	−4	9
8	Sloga Doboj	10	−8	9
9	Radnik Bijeljina	11	−6	8
10	Velež	9	−8	8