Velež v Borac Banja Luka prediction · Premijer Liga

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Borac Banja Luka are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Velež 23%, draw 27%, Borac Banja Luka 50%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Velež v Borac Banja LukaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Velež win23%

Draw27%

Borac Banja Luka win50%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStadion Rodjeni

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Velež

Borac Banja Luka

9Days since last match3

Last match: 9 Oct · Premijer Liga

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Borac Banja Luka	9	+10	22
10	Velež	9	−8	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · borac banja luka winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

50% The market60%

Us50%

~~Market~~60%

We make Borac Banja Luka a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Velež v Borac Banja Luka~~0.81 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 22~~10 v 2

~~The market · Borac Banja Luka win~~60% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Borac Banja Luka win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Velež win	23%	15%	+8
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Borac Banja Luka win	50%	60%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	37%	45%	−8
Both teams to score	40%	44%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	63%	69%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	18%	26%	−8
Velež or draw	50%	40%	+10
Velež clean sheet	26%	–	–
Borac Banja Luka clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.9%

0123450 11.3 15.9 10.4 4.8 1 9.8 11.9 8.3 3.8 2 3.8 5.1 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Velež down, Borac Banja Luka across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,020 Premijer Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premijer Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.7% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Velež at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Borac Banja Luka away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.81 goals for Velež, 1.35 for Borac Banja Luka. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BOR 3–1 VEL · BOR 2–2 VEL · VEL 0–0 BOR · BOR 1–0 VEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 28 Aug

VELEŽ

LDLWLD0–3 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–0

BORAC BANJA LUKA

WLWWWW2–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zrinjski	9	+16	24
2	Borac Banja Luka	9	+10	22
3	FK Sarajevo	10	+1	15
4	Siroki Brijeg	10	0	13
5	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	10	−1	13
6	Čelik	9	−1	9
7	BSK Banja Luka	10	−4	9
8	Sloga Doboj	10	−8	9
9	Radnik Bijeljina	10	−5	8
10	Velež	9	−8	8