Sloga Doboj v Velež prediction · Premijer Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sloga DobojDrawVelež

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Velež 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Velež are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sloga Doboj 33%, draw 30%, Velež 38%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Sloga Doboj v VeležBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Sloga Doboj win33%

Draw30%

Velež win38%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStadion Luke

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sloga Doboj

Velež

15Days since last match22

Last match: 16 Oct · Premijer Liga

Last match: 9 Oct · Premijer Liga

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Sloga Doboj	10	−8	9
10	Velež	9	−8	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · velež winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Velež a 38% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.0, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sloga Doboj v Velež~~0.95 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 8~~8 v 10

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sloga Doboj win	33%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Velež win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Sloga Doboj or draw	62%	–	–
Sloga Doboj clean sheet	35%	–	–
Velež clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.7%

0123450 13.4 14.7 7.4 2.6 1 13.3 12.8 6.9 2.4 2 6.1 6.3 3.3 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sloga Doboj down, Velež across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,024 Premijer Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premijer Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.4% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sloga Doboj at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Velež away: 0.33 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for Sloga Doboj, 1.05 for Velež. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VEL 2–0 SLO · SLO 0–3 VEL · VEL 0–0 SLO · VEL 3–1 SLO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 28 Aug

SLOGA DOBOJ

WDLLLL2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–6 · 0–1

VELEŽ

LDLWLD0–3 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zrinjski	11	+20	30
2	Borac Banja Luka	9	+10	22
3	FK Sarajevo	11	+3	18
4	Siroki Brijeg	11	0	14
5	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	11	−3	13
6	Čelik	11	−4	10
7	BSK Banja Luka	10	−4	9
8	Sloga Doboj	10	−8	9
9	Radnik Bijeljina	11	−6	8
10	Velež	9	−8	8