Sloga Doboj v Siroki Brijeg prediction · Premijer Liga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 19:31

Sloga Doboj 0–1 Siroki Brijeg SLOGA DOBOJ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sloga Doboj win~~37%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.649

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.861

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sloga Doboj win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sloga Doboj was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–29–34
1′KICK-OFF Sloga Doboj v Siroki Brijeg
13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Sloga Doboj
17′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Sloga Doboj
17′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Ferni · Sloga Doboj
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Siroki Brijeg
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Sloga Doboj win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Sloga Doboj 0–0 Siroki Brijeg
45′SECOND HALF Sloga Doboj 0–0 Siroki Brijeg
46′We said Sloga Doboj at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–22–71
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Sloga Doboj 0–1 Siroki Brijeg
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Sloga Doboj win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Siroki Brijeg win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 22%)
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sloga Doboj · On: F. Ferreiroa · Off: A. Redzic
47′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 7–22–72
48′A goal for Siroki Brijeg on 47′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–21–72
58′We said Sloga Doboj at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Siroki Brijeg · On: K. Sesar · Off: L. Guedes
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sloga Doboj · On: M. Savic · Off: J. Cueto
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sloga Doboj · On: O. Seslak · Off: D. Savic
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Siroki Brijeg · On: M. Kordic-Gruzic · Off: M. Matic
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Siroki Brijeg · On: I. Jelic · Off: M. Mourelo
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sloga Doboj · On: J. Bolivar · Off: B. Garay
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Siroki Brijeg · On: M. Hrkac · Off: M. Barac
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Siroki Brijeg · On: I. Kraljevic · Off: D. Virgili
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Sloga Doboj · On: M. Veselinovic · Off: Dani Molina
93′Full time, 0–1. We called Sloga Doboj at 37% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Sloga Doboj 0–1 Siroki Brijeg
FTSloga Doboj 0–1 Siroki Brijeg · Sloga Doboj win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sloga Doboj just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sloga Doboj 37%, draw 28%, Siroki Brijeg 34%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Sloga Doboj v Siroki BrijegBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sloga Doboj win37%

Draw28%

Siroki Brijeg win34%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStadion Luke

Line-ups

Sloga Doboj

3-5-2

Siroki Brijeg

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sloga Doboj

Siroki Brijeg

5Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Premijer Liga

Last match: 9 Oct · Premijer Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Siroki Brijeg	9	−1	10
7	Sloga Doboj	9	−7	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sloga Doboj

3-5-2

1 P. Garcia

24 B. Garay

2 J. Celikovic

3 R. Corral

13 D. Savic

22 Chuca

23 Dani Molina

14 A. Redzic

11 Ferni

92 T. Jovic

9 J. Cueto

Coach · Nedim Jusufbegovic

Substitutes

25 · B. Pavlovic

7 · J. Bolivar

8 · F. Ferreiroa

10 · M. Veselinovic

19 · S. Damjanic

28 · M. Milanovic

29 · N. Pejovic

33 · J. Kvesic

44 · M. Savic

55 · O. Seslak

99 · J. Djalovic

Siroki Brijeg

4-2-3-1

51 I. Puljic

2 M. Barac

26 M. Orsolic

5 B. Markovina

47 I. Krstanovic

77 R. Marijanovic

90 T. Tomic

11 D. Virgili

18 M. Matic

80 M. Mourelo

9 L. Guedes

Coach · Marijo Tot

Substitutes

43 · E. Ciban

3 · M. Soldo

8 · M. Kordic-Gruzic

10 · F. Matic

17 · L. Romac

19 · F. Jelcic

29 · M. Hrkac

30 · I. Kraljevic

33 · I. Jelic

44 · K. Sesar

Our number · sloga doboj winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off

37% The market46%

Us37%

~~Market~~46%

We make Sloga Doboj a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sloga Doboj v Siroki Brijeg~~1.12 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~7 v 5

~~The market · Sloga Doboj win~~46% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sloga Doboj win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sloga Doboj win	37%	46%	−9
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Siroki Brijeg win	34%	25%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	37%	43%	−6
Both teams to score	43%	49%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	63%	67%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	18%	23%	−5
Sloga Doboj or draw	66%	75%	−9
Sloga Doboj clean sheet	35%	–	–
Siroki Brijeg clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 10.9 12.5 6.4 2.3 1 13.1 12.7 7.0 2.5 2 7.1 7.4 3.9 3 2.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sloga Doboj down, Siroki Brijeg across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,017 Premijer Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premijer Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.30 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sloga Doboj at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Siroki Brijeg away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Sloga Doboj, 1.06 for Siroki Brijeg. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.30

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~1 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SIR 0–0 SLO · SLO 2–0 SIR · SIR 1–0 SLO · SLO 0–0 SIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 29 Aug

SLOGA DOBOJ

DWDLLL0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–6

SIROKI BRIJEG

DLLDLD1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zrinjski	9	+16	24
2	Borac Banja Luka	9	+10	22
3	FK Sarajevo	9	+1	14
4	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	9	−1	12
5	Siroki Brijeg	9	−1	10
6	Čelik	9	−1	9
7	Sloga Doboj	9	−7	9
8	BSK Banja Luka	9	−4	8
9	Velež	9	−8	8
10	Radnik Bijeljina	9	−5	7