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Siroki Brijeg v Čelik

Siroki Brijeg
0–0Full time
Čelik

Premijer Liga · SAT 24 OCT · Stadion Pecara

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Siroki Brijeg 0–0 Čelik SIROKI BRIJEG WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Siroki Brijeg win52%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.897
The market’s Brier score0.796

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Siroki Brijeg win at 52%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Siroki Brijeg was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–24
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Siroki Brijeg v Čelik
  4. 10′SUBSTITUTION · 7' Siroki Brijeg · On: M. Hrkac · Off: M. Barac
  5. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Siroki Brijeg win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
  6. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Čelik
  7. 43′We said Siroki Brijeg at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 40–39–21
  8. 45′We said Siroki Brijeg at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–40–21
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Siroki Brijeg 0–0 Čelik
  10. 45′SECOND HALF Siroki Brijeg 0–0 Čelik
  11. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Siroki Brijeg win 40%)
  12. 55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 39–40–21
  13. 56′We said Siroki Brijeg at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
  14. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Čelik · On: B. Jenjic · Off: O. Sarkic
  15. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Siroki Brijeg win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
  16. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Siroki Brijeg · On: L. Guedes · Off: M. Matic
  17. 64′We said Siroki Brijeg at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–54–17
  18. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Siroki Brijeg · On: F. Jelcic · Off: I. Jelic
  19. 71′We said Siroki Brijeg at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–14
  20. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Čelik · On: D. Vidic · Off: H. Vardo
  21. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Siroki Brijeg win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
  22. 76′We said Siroki Brijeg at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
  23. 80′We said Siroki Brijeg at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–9
  24. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Siroki Brijeg win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
  25. 84′We said Siroki Brijeg at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
  26. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Čelik · On: D. Sijamija · Off: A. Hrvanovic
  27. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Čelik · On: E. Sivac · Off: H. Sabanovic
  28. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Siroki Brijeg · On: M. Soldo · Off: D. Virgili
  29. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Siroki Brijeg · On: I. Kraljevic · Off: K. Sesar
  30. 91′We said Siroki Brijeg at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
  31. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Siroki Brijeg win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
  32. FTFULL TIME Siroki Brijeg 0–0 Čelik
  33. FTSiroki Brijeg 0–0 Čelik · Siroki Brijeg win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Siroki Brijeg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Siroki Brijeg 52%, draw 24%, Čelik 24%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Siroki Brijeg v ČelikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Siroki Brijeg win52%
Draw24%
Čelik win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadion Pecara

RefereeD. Todic

Line-ups

Siroki Brijeg

4-2-3-1

Čelik

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Siroki Brijeg

Čelik

8Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Premijer Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · Premijer Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Siroki Brijeg10013
7Čelik10−49

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Siroki Brijeg

4-2-3-1

51 Ivan Puljić

26 Marijan Oršolić

5 Bartul Markovina

47 Ivan Krstanovic

2 Mateo Barać

77 Robert Marijanović

90 Tomislav Tomić

11 David Virgili Fernandez

18 Marko Matić

44 Kristian Sesar

33 Ivan Jelić

Coach · –

Čelik

4-3-3

1 Arman Šutković

24 Halid Šabanović

17 Albin Omić

4 Kenan Horić

15 Marin Popović

5 Harun Vardo

18 Oliver Šarkić

8 Andres Mohedano

14 Aldin Hrvanović

99 Anes Mašić

11 Samy Faraj

Coach · –

Our number · siroki brijeg winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off
52% The market48%
Us52%
Market48%

We make Siroki Brijeg a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Siroki Brijeg v Čelik1.57 – 0.97
Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 1 SeptW1 D2 L3 · W1 D3 L2
Table places · points 13 v 94 v 7
The market · Siroki Brijeg win48% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:18
Our probability · Siroki Brijeg win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Siroki Brijeg win52%48%+4
Draw24%28%−4
Čelik win24%24%0
Over 2.5 goals46%43%+3
Both teams to score48%48%0
Over 1.5 goals71%68%+3
Over 3.5 goals25%23%+2
Siroki Brijeg or draw76%76%0
Siroki Brijeg clean sheet39%––
Čelik clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%
0123450 7.8 8.3 3.8 1 12.9 11.3 5.7 2 9.6 9.1 4.4 3 5.1 4.8 2.3 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Siroki Brijeg down, Čelik across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023/24
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsCEL 1–2 SIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 1 Sept

SIROKI BRIJEG

LLDLDW1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 1–0

ČELIK

DLWDDL0–0 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Zrinjski11+2030
2Borac Banja Luka9+1022
3FK Sarajevo10+115
4Siroki Brijeg10013
5Zeljeznicar Sarajevo10−113
6BSK Banja Luka10−49
7Čelik10−49
8Sloga Doboj10−89
9Radnik Bijeljina11−68
10Velež9−88

The competition's standings before kick-off.