Radnik Bijeljina v Zeljeznicar Sarajevo prediction · Premijer Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Radnik Bijeljina 3–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo RADNIK BIJELJINA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Radnik Bijeljina win~~37%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.602

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.506

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Radnik Bijeljina win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Radnik Bijeljina 37% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–28–36
1′KICK-OFF Radnik Bijeljina v Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Radnik Bijeljina 0–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
14′⚽ GOAL · 15' Radnik Bijeljina 0–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
22′Zeljeznicar Sarajevo ahead on 15′ through M. Stevanovic. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–22–66
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Radnik Bijeljina win: 37% at kick-off, 12% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Radnik Bijeljina win 12%)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Radnik Bijeljina win: 37% at kick-off, 36% now
25′Zeljeznicar Sarajevo ahead on 15′ through M. Stevanovic. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–67
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Radnik Bijeljina win: 37% at kick-off, 12% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Radnik Bijeljina win: 37% at kick-off, 36% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Radnik Bijeljina win: 37% at kick-off, 11% now
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Radnik Bijeljina
41′We said Radnik Bijeljina at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–22–70
42′We said Radnik Bijeljina at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–22–70
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Radnik Bijeljina win: 37% at kick-off, 8% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Radnik Bijeljina win 8%)
45′SECOND HALF Radnik Bijeljina 0–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
46′HALF-TIME Radnik Bijeljina 0–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Radnik Bijeljina win: 37% at kick-off, 8% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Radnik Bijeljina win 8%)
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Radnik Bijeljina 1–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · M. Stevanovic
47′⚽ GOAL · 49' Radnik Bijeljina 1–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
56′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
59′🟨 YELLOW · 57' R. Piloto · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Radnik Bijeljina 2–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · V. Bradonjic
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Radnik Bijeljina 2–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · On: E. Dragovic · Off: G. Cunha
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · On: M. Huskovic · Off: S. Radovac
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Radnik Bijeljina · On: H. Karjasevic · Off: F. Agyemang
79′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Radnik Bijeljina
82′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Radnik Bijeljina
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Radnik Bijeljina 3–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · M. Karamarko
84′⚽ GOAL · 85' Radnik Bijeljina 3–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · On: Y. Dabo · Off: A. Kulis
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Radnik Bijeljina 3–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Radnik Bijeljina
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Radnik Bijeljina · On: I. Boonen · Off: O. Klenpic
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Radnik Bijeljina · On: B. Dimitric · Off: A. Markovic
FTFULL TIME Radnik Bijeljina 3–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
FTRadnik Bijeljina 3–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · Radnik Bijeljina win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Radnik Bijeljina win37%

Draw27%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueGradski stadion Bijeljina

RefereeF. Jelic

Line-ups

Radnik Bijeljina

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Radnik Bijeljina

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	8	+1	12
10	Radnik Bijeljina	8	−7	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Radnik Bijeljina

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Markovic

6 F. Agyemang

11 O. Klenpic

14 A. Markovic

22 M. Sukilovic

26 D. Cosic

29 D. Teodorovic

32 M. Andacic

66 M. Stevanovic

70 A. Konate

77 M. Ghorzi

Coach · Bojan Krulj

Substitutes

27 · V. Kjosevski

5 · B. Meyapya

7 · I. Boonen

10 · E. Crnko

16 · B. Dimitric

17 · L. Cveticanin

18 · I. Spaic

19 · H. Karjasevic

20 · V. Bradonjic

85 · P. Klancir

99 · A. Ijoma

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Abdulahovic

30 M. Karamarko

5 A. Ibrisimovic

4 M. Karamarko

32 S. Jovanovic

6 A. Pejic

88 S. Radovac

90 R. Piloto

10 M. Sosic

49 G. Cunha

19 A. Kulis

Coach · David Muslera

Substitutes

99 · A. Cosic

27 · D. Milosevic

29 · M. Huskovic

25 · D. Kelmendi

22 · A. Gojak

24 · A. Rascic

7 · Y. Dabo

20 · G. Troupee

28 · J. Freeman

9 · A. Korora

23 · E. Dragovic

Our number · radnik bijeljina winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

37% The market42%

Us37%

~~Market~~42%

We make Radnik Bijeljina a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · radnik bijeljina win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Radnik Bijeljina win	37%	42%	−5
Draw	27%	30%	−4
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win	36%	28%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	42%	42%	0
Both teams to score	47%	48%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	67%	67%	0
Over 3.5 goals	21%	23%	−1
Radnik Bijeljina or draw	64%	72%	−9
Radnik Bijeljina clean sheet	31%	–	–
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 9.1 11.8 6.5 2.6 1 11.9 12.3 7.6 3.0 2 6.6 7.6 4.5 3 2.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Radnik Bijeljina down, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,014 Premijer Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premijer Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Radnik Bijeljina at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away: 0.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Radnik Bijeljina, 1.17 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RAD 0–3 ZEL · ZEL 0–0 RAD · RAD 1–0 ZEL · ZEL 1–1 RAD

Form · last six in Premijer Liga

RADNIK BIJELJINA

LDDLLD1–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 4–4

ZELJEZNICAR SARAJEVO

DLWWDD1–1 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borac Banja Luka	9	+10	22
2	Zrinjski	8	+12	21
3	FK Sarajevo	8	+1	13
4	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	8	+1	12
5	Siroki Brijeg	9	−1	10
6	Sloga Doboj	8	−3	9
7	Čelik	8	−1	8
8	BSK Banja Luka	9	−4	8
9	Velež	9	−8	8
10	Radnik Bijeljina	8	−7	4