Radnik Bijeljina v FK Sarajevo prediction · Premijer Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Radnik Bijeljina 1–1 FK Sarajevo FK SARAJEVO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FK Sarajevo win~~44%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.840

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.779

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FK Sarajevo win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FK Sarajevo 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 30–26–44
1′KICK-OFF Radnik Bijeljina v FK Sarajevo
8′Little has changed for our model: FK Sarajevo 44% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 29–27–43
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was FK Sarajevo win 35%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' FK Sarajevo win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME Radnik Bijeljina 0–0 FK Sarajevo
45′SECOND HALF Radnik Bijeljina 0–0 FK Sarajevo
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FK Sarajevo · On: F. Kyeremeh · Off: G. Cimirot
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FK Sarajevo · On: A. Galesic · Off: L. Mikic
51′We said FK Sarajevo at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 23–45–32
54′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Radnik Bijeljina · On: A. Konate · Off: V. Bradonjic
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 22–47–30
57′We said FK Sarajevo at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 22–49–29
58′We said FK Sarajevo at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 1–0 · 71–22–6
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Radnik Bijeljina 1–0 FK Sarajevo
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' FK Sarajevo win: 44% at kick-off, 6% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Radnik Bijeljina win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 22%)
59′Radnik Bijeljina ahead on 58′ through M. Ghorzi. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–22–6
60′Radnik Bijeljina find the net on 60′. 1–0 · 72–22–6
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Radnik Bijeljina
65′We said FK Sarajevo at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' FK Sarajevo · On: R. Telalovic · Off: S. Ignatkov
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' FK Sarajevo win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' FK Sarajevo
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FK Sarajevo · On: B. Barisic · Off: R. Caraballo
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Radnik Bijeljina
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Radnik Bijeljina · On: M. Sukilovic · Off: E. Crnko
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Radnik Bijeljina · On: I. Boonen · Off: O. Klenpic
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Radnik Bijeljina · On: B. Dimitric · Off: A. Markovic
86′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FK Sarajevo · On: F. Zivkovic · Off: I. Saric
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Radnik Bijeljina · On: L. Cveticanin · Off: D. Teodorovic
88′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–1 · 4–90–6
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Radnik Bijeljina 1–1 FK Sarajevo
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Radnik Bijeljina win 4%)
89′A goal for FK Sarajevo on 88′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 4–91–5
90′1–1 at the end. Our 44% on FK Sarajevo misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' FK Sarajevo
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Radnik Bijeljina
FTFULL TIME Radnik Bijeljina 1–1 FK Sarajevo
FTRadnik Bijeljina 1–1 FK Sarajevo · FK Sarajevo win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FK Sarajevo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Radnik Bijeljina 30%, draw 26%, FK Sarajevo 44%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Radnik Bijeljina v FK SarajevoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Radnik Bijeljina win30%

Draw26%

FK Sarajevo win44%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueGradski stadion Bijeljina

Line-ups

Radnik Bijeljina

4-4-2

FK Sarajevo

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Radnik Bijeljina

FK Sarajevo

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Premijer Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FK Sarajevo	9	+1	14
10	Radnik Bijeljina	9	−5	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Radnik Bijeljina

4-4-2

1 D. Markovic

66 M. Stevanovic

5 B. Meyapya

26 D. Cosic

14 A. Markovic

77 M. Ghorzi

19 H. Karjasevic

10 E. Crnko

20 V. Bradonjic

29 D. Teodorovic

11 O. Klenpic

Coach · Bojan Krulj

Substitutes

27 · V. Kjosevski

3 · S. Radovic

7 · I. Boonen

8 · T. B. Laus

16 · B. Dimitric

17 · L. Cveticanin

18 · I. Spaic

22 · M. Sukilovic

23 · M. Vukovic

70 · A. Konate

99 · A. Ijoma

FK Sarajevo

4-3-3

31 I. Banic

27 L. Hujber

18 M. Glogovac

30 L. Dajcer

77 M. Kupresak

20 A. Elezi

35 S. Ignatkov

59 G. Cimirot

9 L. Mikic

19 R. Caraballo

7 I. Saric

Coach · Zoran Zekic

Substitutes

13 · S. Musija

2 · S. Maroodza

5 · R. Telalovic

6 · J. Ivanisevic

8 · A. Galesic

11 · F. Kyeremeh

17 · F. Kosi

22 · A. Beganovic

24 · F. Zivkovic

70 · S. Pidro

99 · B. Barisic

Our number · fk sarajevo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off

44% The market46%

Us44%

~~Market~~46%

We make FK Sarajevo a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Radnik Bijeljina v FK Sarajevo~~1.08 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 14~~10 v 3

~~The market · FK Sarajevo win~~46% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FK Sarajevo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Radnik Bijeljina win	30%	25%	+5
Draw	26%	29%	−3
FK Sarajevo win	44%	46%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	45%	42%	+3
Both teams to score	48%	48%	0
Over 1.5 goals	70%	66%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	24%	23%	+1
Radnik Bijeljina or draw	56%	54%	+2
Radnik Bijeljina clean sheet	25%	–	–
FK Sarajevo clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.2 12.4 8.2 3.8 1 9.8 12.0 8.6 4.0 2 5.0 6.7 4.6 2.2 3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Radnik Bijeljina down, FK Sarajevo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,018 Premijer Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premijer Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Radnik Bijeljina at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). FK Sarajevo away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Radnik Bijeljina, 1.39 for FK Sarajevo. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FKS 0–0 RAD · RAD 1–2 FKS · FKS 2–0 RAD · RAD 2–2 FKS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 30 Aug

RADNIK BIJELJINA

DDLLDW2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 4–4 · 3–1

FK SARAJEVO

WWLLWD2–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zrinjski	9	+16	24
2	Borac Banja Luka	9	+10	22
3	FK Sarajevo	9	+1	14
4	Siroki Brijeg	10	0	13
5	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	9	−1	12
6	Čelik	9	−1	9
7	Sloga Doboj	10	−8	9
8	BSK Banja Luka	9	−4	8
9	Velež	9	−8	8
10	Radnik Bijeljina	9	−5	7