FK Sarajevo v Zeljeznicar Sarajevo prediction · Premijer Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:41

FK Sarajevo 2–0 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo FK SARAJEVO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FK Sarajevo win~~55%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.310

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.246

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FK Sarajevo win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FK Sarajevo 55% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–25–20
1′KICK-OFF FK Sarajevo v Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
11′SUBSTITUTION · 3' FK Sarajevo · On: M. Glogovac · Off: L. Dajcer
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' FK Sarajevo win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
39′We said FK Sarajevo at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–39–18
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
45′SECOND HALF FK Sarajevo 0–0 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' FK Sarajevo
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
47′HALF-TIME FK Sarajevo 0–0 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
48′We said FK Sarajevo at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–44–17
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was FK Sarajevo win 41%)
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' FK Sarajevo win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
57′We said FK Sarajevo at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–50–16
64′We said FK Sarajevo at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–57–14
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' FK Sarajevo win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
70′We said FK Sarajevo at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–64–12
76′We said FK Sarajevo at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–72–9
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FK Sarajevo · On: A. Galesic · Off: I. Saric
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FK Sarajevo · On: F. Kyeremeh · Off: R. Caraballo
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FK Sarajevo · On: B. Barisic · Off: F. Zivkovic
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · On: M. Sosic · Off: S. Radovac
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · On: A. Kulis · Off: R. Piloto
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' FK Sarajevo win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
80′We said FK Sarajevo at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–79–7
84′We said FK Sarajevo at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' FK Sarajevo win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
95′We said FK Sarajevo at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–0 · 2–98–1
98′🟨 YELLOW · 90+24' FK Sarajevo
99′2–0 at the end. Our 55% on FK Sarajevo comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
100′We said FK Sarajevo at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 1–0 · 99–1–0 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
100′A goal for FK Sarajevo on 90′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 99–1–0 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
100′⚽ GOAL · 90+10' FK Sarajevo 1–0 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
100′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+10' FK Sarajevo win: 55% at kick-off, 99% now
100′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+10' FK Sarajevo win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 98%)
105′SUBSTITUTION · 90+13' FK Sarajevo · On: M. Kupresak · Off: L. Mikic
106′🟨 YELLOW · 90+16' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
106′SUBSTITUTION · 90+15' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · On: A. Korora · Off: E. Dragovic
112′We said FK Sarajevo at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
112′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 2–0 · 100–0–0
112′⚽ GOAL · 90+22' FK Sarajevo 2–0 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
113′FK Sarajevo score on 90′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME FK Sarajevo 2–0 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
FTFK Sarajevo 2–0 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · FK Sarajevo win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FK Sarajevo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FK Sarajevo 55%, draw 25%, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 20%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on FK Sarajevo v Zeljeznicar SarajevoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FK Sarajevo win55%

Draw25%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win20%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:46

RoundMatchday 11

RefereeA. Efendic

Line-ups

FK Sarajevo

4-2-3-1

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FK Sarajevo

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Premijer Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FK Sarajevo	10	+1	15
5	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	10	−1	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FK Sarajevo

4-2-3-1

31 Ivan Banić

22 Amar Beganović

6 Jovan Ivanišević

30 Luka Dajčer

70 Selmir Pidro

38 Souleymane Méité

24 Filip Živković

9 Leo Mikić

20 Agon Elezi

7 Ivan Šarić

19 Ricardo Caraballo

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · Sanin Musija

17 · Filip Kosi

18 · Matija Glogovac

27 · Luka Hujber

8 · Antonio Galešić

11 · Francis Kyeremeh

32 · Vedad Leto

35 · Sergej Ignatkov

59 · Gojko Cimirot

77 · Mihael Kuprešak

99 · Bartol Barišić

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

4-2-3-1

1 Tarik Abdulahović

24 Ajdin Raščić

5 Amar Ibrišimović

4 Marin Karamarko

30 Marko Karamarko

6 Aleksa Pejić

88 Samir Radovac

7 Yacouba Dabo Gnako

23 Eldar Dragović

32 Sandro Jovanović

90 Rodrigo Piloto

Coach · –

Substitutes

99 · Ángel Jiménez

33 · Daris Kelmendi

20 · Giovanni Troupee

15 · Bojan Nastić

22 · Admir Gojak

27 · Deni Milošević

16 · Madžid Šošić

49 · Gabriel Cunha Geraldo

28 · Jonathan Freeman

12 · Ante Kuliš

9 · Aldian Korora

Our number · fk sarajevo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

55% The market60%

Us55%

~~Market~~60%

We make FK Sarajevo a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FK Sarajevo v Zeljeznicar Sarajevo~~1.50 – 0.78

~~Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 13~~3 v 5

~~The market · FK Sarajevo win~~60% · ours 55%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FK Sarajevo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Sarajevo win	55%	60%	−5
Draw	25%	25%	0
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win	20%	15%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	40%	43%	−3
Both teams to score	41%	42%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	66%	67%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	24%	−4
FK Sarajevo or draw	80%	85%	−5
FK Sarajevo clean sheet	46%	–	–
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.7%

0123450 10.0 8.5 3.2 1 15.7 11.3 4.6 2 11.4 8.8 3.4 3 5.8 4.4 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Sarajevo down, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,022 Premijer Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premijer Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FK Sarajevo at home: 0.83 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for FK Sarajevo, 0.78 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ZEL 2–0 FKS · FKS 1–0 ZEL · ZEL 0–0 FKS · FKS 4–0 ZEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 6 Sept

FK SARAJEVO

WLLWDD1–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

ZELJEZNICAR SARAJEVO

WWDDLD3–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zrinjski	11	+20	30
2	Borac Banja Luka	9	+10	22
3	FK Sarajevo	10	+1	15
4	Siroki Brijeg	10	0	13
5	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	10	−1	13
6	BSK Banja Luka	10	−4	9
7	Čelik	10	−4	9
8	Sloga Doboj	10	−8	9
9	Radnik Bijeljina	11	−6	8
10	Velež	9	−8	8