Čelik v Zrinjski prediction · Premijer Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:31

Čelik 0–3 Zrinjski ZRINJSKI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zrinjski win~~56%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.296

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.238

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zrinjski win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: Zrinjski was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 21–24–55
1′KICK-OFF Čelik v Zrinjski
15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' D. Sijamija · Čelik
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Čelik
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Zrinjski win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
36′🟥 RED CARD · 36' Čelik
38′A red card for Čelik on 37′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 20–35–45
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' F. Gogic · Čelik
40′We said Zrinjski at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 19–36–44
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' K. Abramovic · Zrinjski
45′SECOND HALF Čelik 0–0 Zrinjski
47′HALF-TIME Čelik 0–0 Zrinjski
51′We said Zrinjski at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 18–43–39
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Zrinjski win 39%)
55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 17–46–37
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Zrinjski win: 56% at kick-off, 36% now
57′We published Zrinjski at 56%. Our model now makes it 83%. 0–1 · 3–14–83
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Čelik 0–1 Zrinjski
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Zrinjski win: 56% at kick-off, 83% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Zrinjski win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 14%)
58′Zrinjski score on 58′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 2–14–83
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Čelik · On: S. Faraj · Off: A. Hrvanovic
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Čelik · On: J. Amoah · Off: O. Sarkic
63′We published Zrinjski at 56%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
63′We published Zrinjski at 56%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Čelik 0–2 Zrinjski
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Zrinjski win: 56% at kick-off, 98% now
64′Zrinjski find the net on 64′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
65′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–2 · 0–2–98
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Čelik · On: D. Vidic · Off: H. Sabanovic
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Čelik · On: E. Sivac · Off: A. Masic
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Čelik · On: N. Smajlovic · Off: M. Popovic
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Zrinjski · On: D. Lagumdzija · Off: M. Cuic
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Zrinjski · On: I. Vidovic · Off: K. Abramovic
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Zrinjski · On: V. Grbic · Off: M. Vranjkovic
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Zrinjski
79′We published Zrinjski at 56%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Zrinjski
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Zrinjski · On: S. Cvetkovic · Off: M. Cuze
91′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Čelik 0–3 Zrinjski
93′A goal for Zrinjski on 90′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Čelik 0–3 Zrinjski
FTČelik 0–3 Zrinjski · Zrinjski win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zrinjski are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Čelik 21%, draw 23%, Zrinjski 56%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Čelik v ZrinjskiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Čelik win21%

Draw23%

Zrinjski win56%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueBilino Polje

Line-ups

Čelik

4-2-3-1

Zrinjski

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Čelik

Zrinjski

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Premijer Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Čelik

4-2-3-1

1 A. Sutkovic

24 H. Sabanovic

17 A. Omic

4 K. Horic

15 M. Popovic

18 O. Sarkic

8 A. Mohedano

14 A. Hrvanovic

88 F. Gogic

7 D. Sijamija

99 A. Masic

Coach · Bojan Regoje

Substitutes

13 · V. Savic

6 · A. Masetic

21 · E. Sivac

22 · E. Babic

28 · J. Amoah

5 · H. Vardo

9 · D. Vidic

20 · B. Jenjic

2 · A. Hodzic

19 · N. Smajlovic

11 · S. Faraj

Zrinjski

4-2-3-1

18 G. Karacic

19 M. Vranjkovic

6 I. Savic

15 K. Stapic

12 P. Mamic

20 A. Ivancic

10 M. Cuic

77 K. Abramovic

17 A. Ilic

25 M. Cuze

99 N. Bilbija

Coach · Simon Rozman

Substitutes

31 · Z. Subaric

27 · S. Jakovljevic

21 · V. Grbic

24 · T. Palic

40 · B. Curdo

42 · M. Cavar

5 · D. Lagumdzija

8 · I. Vidovic

80 · H. Ljukovac

26 · S. Cvetkovic

11 · T. Juric

Our number · zrinjski winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off

56% The market61%

Us56%

~~Market~~61%

We make Zrinjski a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Čelik v Zrinjski~~0.89 – 1.66

~~Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 24~~6 v 1

~~The market · Zrinjski win~~61% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zrinjski win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Čelik win	21%	15%	+6
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Zrinjski win	56%	61%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	46%	46%	0
Both teams to score	46%	44%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	71%	70%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	26%	−1
Čelik or draw	44%	39%	+5
Čelik clean sheet	20%	–	–
Zrinjski clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.4%

0123450 7.8 13.4 10.7 6.0 2.6 1 7.5 10.9 9.1 5.0 2.2 2 3.2 5.1 4.0 2.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Čelik down, Zrinjski across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,020 Premijer Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premijer Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.7% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Čelik at home: 1.75 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 4). Zrinjski away: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.89 goals for Čelik, 1.66 for Zrinjski. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ZRI 2–1 CEL · CEL 0–6 ZRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 28 Aug

ČELIK

WDLWDD3–0 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–0

ZRINJSKI

WWWLWW1–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 6–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zrinjski	9	+16	24
2	Borac Banja Luka	9	+10	22
3	FK Sarajevo	10	+1	15
4	Siroki Brijeg	10	0	13
5	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	10	−1	13
6	Čelik	9	−1	9
7	BSK Banja Luka	10	−4	9
8	Sloga Doboj	10	−8	9
9	Radnik Bijeljina	10	−5	8
10	Velež	9	−8	8