Čelik v FK Sarajevo prediction · Premijer Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Čelik 0–0 FK Sarajevo FK SARAJEVO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FK Sarajevo win~~43%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.844

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.777

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FK Sarajevo win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: FK Sarajevo was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 31–27–42
51′We said FK Sarajevo at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 24–44–31
72′We said FK Sarajevo at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–0 · 16–64–20
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' FK Sarajevo win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' FK Sarajevo win: 43% at kick-off, 20% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' FK Sarajevo win: 43% at kick-off, 20% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' FK Sarajevo win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' FK Sarajevo win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' FK Sarajevo win: 43% at kick-off, 20% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' FK Sarajevo win: 43% at kick-off, 20% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' FK Sarajevo win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
92′We said FK Sarajevo at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 0–0 · 0–100–0
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' FK Sarajevo win: 43% at kick-off, 20% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' FK Sarajevo win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' FK Sarajevo win: 43% at kick-off, 0% now
92′SUBSTITUTION · 92' FK Sarajevo · On: G. Cimirot · Off: A. Elezi
92′SUBSTITUTION · 92' FK Sarajevo · On: F. Kosi · Off: I. Saric
92′SUBSTITUTION · 92' FK Sarajevo · On: B. Barisic · Off: R. Caraballo
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' FK Sarajevo win: 43% at kick-off, 0% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' FK Sarajevo win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
96′We said FK Sarajevo at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 0–0 · 0–100–0
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 96' FK Sarajevo win: 43% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Čelik 0–0 FK Sarajevo
FTČelik 0–0 FK Sarajevo · FK Sarajevo win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Čelik win32%

Draw25%

FK Sarajevo win43%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:30

VenueBilino Polje

RefereeA. Kukic

Line-ups

Čelik

FK Sarajevo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Čelik

FK Sarajevo

23Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FK Sarajevo	8	+1	13
7	Čelik	8	−1	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Čelik

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Sutkovic

4 K. Horic

7 D. Sijamija

8 A. Mohedano

14 A. Hrvanovic

17 A. Omic

18 O. Sarkic

19 N. Smajlovic

24 H. Sabanovic

88 F. Gogic

99 A. Masic

Coach · Bojan Regoje

Substitutes

23 · A. Durmo

2 · A. Hodzic

5 · H. Vardo

6 · A. Masetic

9 · D. Vidic

11 · S. Faraj

15 · M. Popovic

20 · B. Jenjic

21 · E. Sivac

22 · E. Babic

28 · J. Amoah

FK Sarajevo

Formation not confirmed

31 I. Banic

6 J. Ivanisevic

7 I. Saric

9 L. Mikic

11 F. Kyeremeh

19 R. Caraballo

20 A. Elezi

22 A. Beganovic

30 L. Dajcer

35 S. Ignatkov

70 S. Pidro

Coach · Zoran Zekic

Substitutes

13 · S. Musija

2 · S. Maroodza

5 · R. Telalovic

8 · A. Galesic

14 · V. Leto

17 · F. Kosi

18 · M. Glogovac

24 · F. Zivkovic

59 · G. Cimirot

77 · M. Kupresak

99 · B. Barisic

Our number · fk sarajevo winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

43% The market46%

Us43%

~~Market~~46%

We make FK Sarajevo a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fk sarajevo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Čelik win	32%	26%	+6
Draw	25%	29%	−4
FK Sarajevo win	43%	46%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	46%	42%	+3
Both teams to score	49%	48%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	70%	67%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	23%	+2
Čelik or draw	57%	54%	+3
Čelik clean sheet	26%	–	–
FK Sarajevo clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.8 11.8 7.7 3.6 1 9.9 11.8 8.4 3.9 2 5.4 7.0 4.7 2.2 3 2.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Čelik down, FK Sarajevo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,014 Premijer Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premijer Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Čelik at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). FK Sarajevo away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Čelik, 1.37 for FK Sarajevo. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Premijer Liga

ČELIK

LWDLWD0–2 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 1–1

FK SARAJEVO

LWWLLW0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borac Banja Luka	9	+10	22
2	Zrinjski	8	+12	21
3	FK Sarajevo	8	+1	13
4	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	8	+1	12
5	Siroki Brijeg	9	−1	10
6	Sloga Doboj	8	−3	9
7	Čelik	8	−1	8
8	BSK Banja Luka	9	−4	8
9	Velež	9	−8	8
10	Radnik Bijeljina	8	−7	4