Čelik v Borac Banja Luka prediction · Premijer Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ČelikDrawBorac Banja Luka

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Borac Banja Luka 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Borac Banja Luka are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Čelik 18%, draw 23%, Borac Banja Luka 58%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Čelik v Borac Banja LukaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Čelik win18%

Draw23%

Borac Banja Luka win58%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueBilino Polje

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Čelik

Borac Banja Luka

7Days since last match9

Last match: 24 Oct · Premijer Liga

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Borac Banja Luka	9	+10	22
6	Čelik	11	−4	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · borac banja luka winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Borac Banja Luka a 58% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.7, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Čelik v Borac Banja Luka~~0.78 – 1.66

~~Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 2 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 22~~6 v 2

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Čelik win	18%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Borac Banja Luka win	58%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Čelik or draw	42%	–	–
Čelik clean sheet	20%	–	–
Borac Banja Luka clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.8%

0123450 8.7 14.8 11.8 6.7 2.9 1 7.3 10.7 8.9 4.9 2.1 2 2.8 4.4 3.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Čelik down, Borac Banja Luka across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,024 Premijer Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premijer Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.4% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Čelik at home: 1.40 scored, 1.40 conceded a game (last 5). Borac Banja Luka away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.78 goals for Čelik, 1.66 for Borac Banja Luka. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BOR 2–0 CEL · BOR 3–0 CEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 2 Sept

ČELIK

LWDDLD2–3 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 0–0

BORAC BANJA LUKA

WLWWWW2–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zrinjski	11	+20	30
2	Borac Banja Luka	9	+10	22
3	FK Sarajevo	11	+3	18
4	Siroki Brijeg	11	0	14
5	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	11	−3	13
6	Čelik	11	−4	10
7	BSK Banja Luka	10	−4	9
8	Sloga Doboj	10	−8	9
9	Radnik Bijeljina	11	−6	8
10	Velež	9	−8	8