BSK Banja Luka v Zeljeznicar Sarajevo prediction · Premijer Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

BSK Banja Luka 1–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo BSK BANJA LUKA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said BSK Banja Luka win~~39%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.827

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.765

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said BSK Banja Luka win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: BSK Banja Luka 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–26–35
1′KICK-OFF BSK Banja Luka v Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was BSK Banja Luka win 32%)
45′A goal for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo on 44′. 0–0 · 31–41–29
45′R. Piloto scores for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo on 43′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–22–69
45′⚽ GOAL · 43' BSK Banja Luka 0–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · R. Piloto
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' BSK Banja Luka win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
45′HALF-TIME BSK Banja Luka 0–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
46′We said BSK Banja Luka at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–22–70
46′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 8–22–70
47′SECOND HALF BSK Banja Luka 0–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' BSK Banja Luka · On: F. Predragovic · Off: J. Ljubic
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · On: M. Karamarko · Off: R. Piloto Corrected
62′We said BSK Banja Luka at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' BSK Banja Luka
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' BSK Banja Luka · On: D. Dizdarevic · Off: N. Keranovic
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' BSK Banja Luka
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · On: S. Radovac · Off: M. Sosic
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
77′We said BSK Banja Luka at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' BSK Banja Luka 1–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' BSK Banja Luka win: 39% at kick-off, 14% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win 14%)
78′BSK Banja Luka score on 78′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 13–74–13
79′77′: D. Cavic on the scoresheet for BSK Banja Luka, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 13–76–12
79′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · On: M. Karamarko · Off: Y. Dabo
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · On: D. Milosevic · Off: J. Freeman
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · On: A. Korora · Off: E. Dragovic
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' BSK Banja Luka win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
90′1–1 at the end. Our 39% on BSK Banja Luka misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME BSK Banja Luka 1–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
FTBSK Banja Luka 1–1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · BSK Banja Luka win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with BSK Banja Luka just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: BSK Banja Luka 39%, draw 26%, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 36%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on BSK Banja Luka v Zeljeznicar SarajevoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

BSK Banja Luka win39%

Draw26%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStadion Caire

Line-ups

BSK Banja Luka

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BSK Banja Luka

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Premijer Liga

Last match: 11 Oct · Premijer Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	9	−1	12
8	BSK Banja Luka	9	−4	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

BSK Banja Luka

Formation not confirmed

31 S. Modic

7 N. Keranovic

8 B. Eric

14 O. Radosevic

17 F. Racic

18 A. Subic

20 Z. Kvrzic

22 D. Cavic

30 D. Culina

32 J. Ljubic

49 S. Marcetic

Coach · Bojan Puzigaca

Substitutes

77 · A. Stupar

2 · N. Antesevic

5 · C. A. Diouf

10 · D. Gavric

11 · D. Radic

19 · M. Bundalo

23 · M. Savic

24 · F. Predragovic

26 · N. Runic

27 · S. Ristic

28 · D. Dizdarevic

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Abdulahovic

4 M. Karamarko

5 A. Ibrisimovic

6 A. Pejic

7 Y. Dabo

10 M. Sosic

23 E. Dragovic

24 A. Rascic

28 J. Freeman

32 S. Jovanovic

90 R. Piloto

Coach · David Muslera

Substitutes

41 · A. Jimenez

9 · A. Korora

19 · A. Kulis

20 · G. Troupee

22 · A. Gojak

25 · D. Kelmendi

27 · D. Milosevic

29 · M. Huskovic

30 · M. Karamarko

49 · G. Cunha

88 · S. Radovac

Our number · bsk banja luka winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off

39% The market38%

Us39%

~~Market~~38%

We make BSK Banja Luka a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · BSK Banja Luka v Zeljeznicar Sarajevo~~1.28 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 12~~8 v 5

~~The market · BSK Banja Luka win~~38% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · BSK Banja Luka win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BSK Banja Luka win	39%	38%	+1
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win	36%	33%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	45%	45%	0
Both teams to score	49%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	70%	70%	0
Over 3.5 goals	24%	24%	0
BSK Banja Luka or draw	64%	67%	−3
BSK Banja Luka clean sheet	30%	–	–
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 8.1 10.7 6.1 2.5 1 11.2 12.0 7.5 3.1 2 6.8 8.0 4.8 3 3.0 3.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BSK Banja Luka down, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,018 Premijer Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premijer Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BSK Banja Luka at home: 2.25 scored, 1.75 conceded a game (last 4). Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for BSK Banja Luka, 1.21 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ZEL 2–1 BSK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 29 Aug

BSK BANJA LUKA

LLWDDL0–1 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 4–4 · 0–2

ZELJEZNICAR SARAJEVO

LWWDDL0–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zrinjski	9	+16	24
2	Borac Banja Luka	9	+10	22
3	FK Sarajevo	9	+1	14
4	Siroki Brijeg	10	0	13
5	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	9	−1	12
6	Čelik	9	−1	9
7	Sloga Doboj	10	−8	9
8	BSK Banja Luka	9	−4	8
9	Velež	9	−8	8
10	Radnik Bijeljina	9	−5	7