Velež Nevesinje v FK Romanija Pale prediction · 1st League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Velež Nevesinje 2–3 FK Romanija Pale VELEŽ NEVESINJE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Velež Nevesinje win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.074

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Velež Nevesinje are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Velež Nevesinje 62%, draw 19%, FK Romanija Pale 19%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Velež Nevesinje v FK Romanija PaleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Velež Nevesinje win62%

Draw19%

FK Romanija Pale win19%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundRS · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Velež Nevesinje

FK Romanija Pale

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 1st League - RS

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	FK Romanija Pale	10	−9	12
10	Velež Nevesinje	10	−12	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · velež nevesinje winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Velež Nevesinje a 62% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Velež Nevesinje v FK Romanija Pale~~2.23 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in 1st League - RS this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 11 v 12~~10 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Velež Nevesinje win	62%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
FK Romanija Pale win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Velež Nevesinje or draw	81%	–	–
Velež Nevesinje clean sheet	33%	–	–
FK Romanija Pale clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.7 4.3 2.3 1 8.0 8.6 4.9 2 8.5 9.4 5.3 2.0 3 6.2 6.9 3.9 4 3.5 3.9 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Velež Nevesinje down, FK Romanija Pale across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,424 1st League - RS matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st League - RS matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.43 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Velež Nevesinje at home: 2.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). FK Romanija Pale away: 0.67 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.23 goals for Velež Nevesinje, 1.14 for FK Romanija Pale. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.43

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~FKR 3–4 VEL · VEL 2–0 FKR · FKR 2–0 VEL · FKR 1–2 VEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st League - RS this season · since 11 Sept

VELEŽ NEVESINJE

WLWLWL2–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–3

FK ROMANIJA PALE

WLLLWL2–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–5 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Leotar	10	+22	26
2	Laktaši	10	+21	25
3	FK Majevica Lopare	10	+8	18
4	Potkozarje	10	+1	17
5	Kozara Gradiška	10	+2	16
6	Drina Zvornik	10	+10	15
7	Famos Vojkovići	10	−3	13
8	Rudar Prijedor	10	−3	12
9	FK Romanija Pale	10	−9	12
10	Velež Nevesinje	10	−12	11
11	Slavija	10	−6	10
12	Sutjeska Foča	10	−7	8
13	Zvijezda 09	10	−12	7
14	Omarska	10	−12	5