Slavija v Leotar prediction · 1st League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SlavijaDrawLeotar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Leotar 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Leotar just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Slavija 34%, draw 30%, Leotar 36%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Slavija v LeotarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Slavija win34%

Draw30%

Leotar win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundRS · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Slavija

Leotar

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · 1st League - RS

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Leotar	12	+26	32
10	Slavija	12	−5	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leotar winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

36% The market46%

Us36%

~~Market~~46%

We make Leotar a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Slavija v Leotar~~1.00 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in 1st League - RS this season · since 22 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 32~~10 v 1

~~The market · Leotar win~~46% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Leotar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slavija win	34%	27%	+7
Draw	30%	27%	+3
Leotar win	36%	46%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	33%	47%	−14
Both teams to score	39%	52%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	59%	71%	−12
Over 3.5 goals	15%	28%	−13
Slavija or draw	64%	54%	+10
Slavija clean sheet	36%	–	–
Leotar clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.9%

0123450 13.4 13.9 7.0 2.5 1 13.4 12.9 6.7 2.3 2 6.6 6.6 3.3 3 2.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slavija down, Leotar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,437 1st League - RS matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st League - RS matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.2% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.38 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Slavija at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Leotar away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Slavija, 1.02 for Leotar. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.38

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SLA 0–0 LEO · SLA 0–0 LEO · LEO 1–1 SLA · LEO 2–0 SLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st League - RS this season · since 22 Sept

SLAVIJA

DWDLDW0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

LEOTAR

WDWWWW3–0 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Leotar	12	+26	32
2	Laktaši	12	+22	28
3	Potkozarje	12	+2	20
4	FK Majevica Lopare	11	+8	19
5	Drina Zvornik	12	+12	18
6	Kozara Gradiška	12	−1	16
7	Famos Vojkovići	12	−5	16
8	Rudar Prijedor	12	−4	15
9	FK Romanija Pale	12	−9	15
10	Slavija	12	−5	14
11	Sutjeska Foča	11	−6	11
12	Velež Nevesinje	12	−16	11
13	Omarska	12	−11	9
14	Zvijezda 09	12	−13	8