Rudar Prijedor v Zvijezda 09 prediction · 1st League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Rudar Prijedor 1–0 Zvijezda 09 RUDAR PRIJEDOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Rudar Prijedor win~~66%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.171

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.207

This prediction was last updated after the match had started (it kicked off on 17 Oct 12:00), so it is shown but not counted in the record’s figures.

The prediction on this page is exactly as we last published it. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rudar Prijedor are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rudar Prijedor 66%, draw 20%, Zvijezda 09 13%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Rudar Prijedor v Zvijezda 09Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Rudar Prijedor win66%

Draw20%

Zvijezda 09 win13%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundRS · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rudar Prijedor

Zvijezda 09

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 1st League - RS

Last match: 10 Oct · 1st League - RS

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Rudar Prijedor	10	−3	12
13	Zvijezda 09	10	−12	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rudar prijedor winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

66% The market63%

Us66%

~~Market~~63%

We make Rudar Prijedor a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rudar Prijedor v Zvijezda 09~~2.01 – 0.74

~~Form · last six in 1st League - RS this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 7~~8 v 13

~~The market · Rudar Prijedor win~~63% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rudar Prijedor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rudar Prijedor win	66%	63%	+3
Draw	20%	22%	−2
Zvijezda 09 win	13%	14%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	51%	56%	−5
Both teams to score	44%	52%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	75%	77%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	37%	−7
Rudar Prijedor or draw	87%	86%	+1
Rudar Prijedor clean sheet	48%	–	–
Zvijezda 09 clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 6.7 5.1 1 13.1 9.3 3.5 2 12.6 9.1 3.4 3 8.4 6.1 2.3 4 4.3 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rudar Prijedor down, Zvijezda 09 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,424 1st League - RS matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st League - RS matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rudar Prijedor at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Zvijezda 09 away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.01 goals for Rudar Prijedor, 0.74 for Zvijezda 09. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ZVI 1–0 RUD · RUD 1–0 ZVI · RUD 1–1 ZVI · ZVI 2–2 RUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st League - RS this season · since 11 Sept

RUDAR PRIJEDOR

LWLLWD0–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 4–1 · 2–2

ZVIJEZDA 09

LLLLDW0–2 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Leotar	10	+22	26
2	Laktaši	10	+21	25
3	FK Majevica Lopare	10	+8	18
4	Potkozarje	10	+1	17
5	Kozara Gradiška	10	+2	16
6	Drina Zvornik	10	+10	15
7	Famos Vojkovići	10	−3	13
8	Rudar Prijedor	10	−3	12
9	FK Romanija Pale	10	−9	12
10	Velež Nevesinje	10	−12	11
11	Slavija	10	−6	10
12	Sutjeska Foča	10	−7	8
13	Zvijezda 09	10	−12	7
14	Omarska	10	−12	5