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Potkozarje v Slavija

Potkozarje

1–0Full time

Slavija

1st League - RS · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 01:30

Potkozarje 1–0 Slavija POTKOZARJE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Potkozarje win~~52%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.342

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.259

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Potkozarje win52%

Draw26%

Slavija win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · potkozarje winPublished 9 Oct 23:31

52% The market59%

Us52%

~~Market~~59%

We make Potkozarje a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · potkozarje win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Potkozarje win	52%	59%	−6
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Slavija win	22%	16%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	41%	46%	−5
Both teams to score	43%	45%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	67%	69%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	25%	−4
Potkozarje or draw	78%	84%	−5
Potkozarje clean sheet	44%	–	–
Slavija clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.7%

0123450 10.2 8.5 3.5 1 14.7 11.7 5.0 2 10.6 8.6 3.6 3 5.4 4.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Potkozarje down, Slavija across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,417 1st League - RS matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1st League - RS matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.8% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Potkozarje at home: 1.40 scored, 1.20 conceded a game (last 5). Slavija away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Potkozarje, 0.83 for Slavija. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 1st League - RS

POTKOZARJE

LLWWDL0–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

SLAVIJA

LDLDWD0–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Leotar	9	+21	23
2	Laktaši	9	+17	22
3	Drina Zvornik	9	+11	15
4	FK Majevica Lopare	9	+5	15
5	Kozara Gradiška	9	+2	15
6	Potkozarje	9	0	14
7	FK Romanija Pale	9	−8	12
8	Rudar Prijedor	9	−3	11
9	Velež Nevesinje	9	−9	11
10	Famos Vojkovići	9	−4	10
11	Slavija	9	−5	10
12	Sutjeska Foča	9	−6	8
13	Omarska	9	−8	5
14	Zvijezda 09	9	−13	4