Potkozarje v Drina Zvornik prediction · 1st League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 01:30

Potkozarje 2–0 Drina Zvornik POTKOZARJE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Potkozarje win~~41%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.518

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.269

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Potkozarje are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Potkozarje 41%, draw 27%, Drina Zvornik 31%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Potkozarje v Drina ZvornikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Potkozarje win41%

Draw27%

Drina Zvornik win31%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 15:30

RoundRS · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Potkozarje

Drina Zvornik

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · 1st League - RS

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Drina Zvornik	11	+14	18
5	Potkozarje	11	0	17

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · potkozarje winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 02:03 · locked at kick-off

41% The market58%

Us41%

~~Market~~58%

We make Potkozarje a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Potkozarje v Drina Zvornik~~1.26 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in 1st League - RS this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 18~~5 v 4

~~The market · Potkozarje win~~58% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Potkozarje win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Potkozarje win	41%	58%	−17
Draw	27%	24%	+3
Drina Zvornik win	31%	18%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	41%	51%	−10
Both teams to score	46%	51%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	67%	74%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	21%	32%	−11
Potkozarje or draw	69%	82%	−13
Potkozarje clean sheet	35%	–	–
Drina Zvornik clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 9.9 10.7 5.5 2.0 1 12.7 12.4 6.7 2.4 2 7.8 7.9 4.2 3 3.4 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Potkozarje down, Drina Zvornik across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,431 1st League - RS matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st League - RS matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.2% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Potkozarje at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Drina Zvornik away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Potkozarje, 1.06 for Drina Zvornik. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st League - RS this season · since 19 Sept

POTKOZARJE

WWDLWL1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–2

DRINA ZVORNIK

LWDWLW1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Leotar	11	+23	29
2	Laktaši	11	+20	25
3	FK Majevica Lopare	11	+8	19
4	Drina Zvornik	11	+14	18
5	Potkozarje	11	0	17
6	Kozara Gradiška	11	+1	16
7	Rudar Prijedor	11	−2	15
8	FK Romanija Pale	11	−8	15
9	Famos Vojkovići	11	−7	13
10	Slavija	11	−6	11
11	Sutjeska Foča	11	−6	11
12	Velež Nevesinje	11	−13	11
13	Omarska	11	−11	8
14	Zvijezda 09	11	−13	7