Omarska v Kozara Gradiška prediction · 1st League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:30

Omarska 1–0 Kozara Gradiška OMARSKA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Omarska win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.462

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Omarska are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Omarska 45%, draw 27%, Kozara Gradiška 28%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Omarska v Kozara GradiškaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Omarska win45%

Draw27%

Kozara Gradiška win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundRS · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Omarska

Kozara Gradiška

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 1st League - RS

Last match: 11 Oct · 1st League - RS

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Kozara Gradiška	10	+2	16
14	Omarska	10	−12	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · omarska winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Omarska a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Omarska v Kozara Gradiška~~1.31 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in 1st League - RS this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 16~~14 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Omarska win	45%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Kozara Gradiška win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Omarska or draw	72%	–	–
Omarska clean sheet	38%	–	–
Kozara Gradiška clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.5%

0123450 10.3 10.2 4.9 1 13.5 12.4 6.2 2.1 2 8.7 8.3 4.0 3 3.9 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Omarska down, Kozara Gradiška across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,430 1st League - RS matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st League - RS matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.9% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Omarska at home: 0.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kozara Gradiška away: 0.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Omarska, 0.97 for Kozara Gradiška. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~OMA 0–0 KOZ · KOZ 4–0 OMA · OMA 3–2 KOZ · KOZ 2–0 OMA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st League - RS this season · since 12 Sept

OMARSKA

LWLDLL1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 0–4

KOZARA GRADIŠKA

LWDWLD0–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Leotar	11	+23	29
2	Laktaši	11	+20	25
3	FK Majevica Lopare	11	+8	19
4	Drina Zvornik	11	+14	18
5	Potkozarje	11	0	17
6	Kozara Gradiška	10	+2	16
7	Rudar Prijedor	11	−2	15
8	FK Romanija Pale	11	−8	15
9	Famos Vojkovići	11	−7	13
10	Slavija	11	−6	11
11	Sutjeska Foča	11	−6	11
12	Velež Nevesinje	11	−13	11
13	Zvijezda 09	11	−13	7
14	Omarska	10	−12	5