Laktaši v Kozara Gradiška prediction · 1st League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 01:30

Laktaši 4–2 Kozara Gradiška LAKTAŠI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Laktaši win~~80%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.062

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Laktaši are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Laktaši 80%, draw 14%, Kozara Gradiška 6%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on Laktaši v Kozara GradiškaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Laktaši win80%

Draw14%

Kozara Gradiška win6%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 17:30

RoundRS · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Laktaši

Kozara Gradiška

4Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · 1st League - RS

Last match: 18 Oct · 1st League - RS

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Laktaši	11	+20	25
6	Kozara Gradiška	11	+1	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · laktaši winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

80% The market–

Us80%

We make Laktaši an 80% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–0.5, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Laktaši v Kozara Gradiška~~2.42 – 0.47

~~Form · last six in 1st League - RS this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 25 v 16~~2 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Laktaši win	80%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
Kozara Gradiška win	6%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	33%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Laktaši or draw	94%	–	–
Laktaši clean sheet	63%	–	–
Kozara Gradiška clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 16.1%

0123450 5.8 2.8 1 13.8 6.1 2 16.1 7.4 3 12.8 5.9 4 7.9 3.6 5 3.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Laktaši down, Kozara Gradiška across0–5 goals a side shown (95.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,431 1st League - RS matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st League - RS matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.2% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.44 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Laktaši at home: 3.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kozara Gradiška away: 0.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.42 goals for Laktaši, 0.47 for Kozara Gradiška. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.44

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~2 of 9

~~Last meetings~~LAK 2–0 KOZ · LAK 1–0 KOZ · KOZ 1–0 LAK · KOZ 1–2 LAK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st League - RS this season · since 19 Sept

LAKTAŠI

WDWLWL2–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 0–1

KOZARA GRADIŠKA

WDWLDL1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Leotar	11	+23	29
2	Laktaši	11	+20	25
3	FK Majevica Lopare	11	+8	19
4	Drina Zvornik	11	+14	18
5	Potkozarje	11	0	17
6	Kozara Gradiška	11	+1	16
7	Rudar Prijedor	11	−2	15
8	FK Romanija Pale	11	−8	15
9	Famos Vojkovići	11	−7	13
10	Slavija	11	−6	11
11	Sutjeska Foča	11	−6	11
12	Velež Nevesinje	11	−13	11
13	Omarska	11	−11	8
14	Zvijezda 09	11	−13	7