Kozara Gradiška v Zvijezda 09 prediction · 1st League

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Kozara Gradiška 2–0 Zvijezda 09 KOZARA GRADIŠKA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kozara Gradiška win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.291

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kozara Gradiška are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kozara Gradiška 56%, draw 25%, Zvijezda 09 19%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Kozara Gradiška v Zvijezda 09Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Kozara Gradiška win56%

Draw25%

Zvijezda 09 win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundRS · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kozara Gradiška

Zvijezda 09

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · 1st League - RS

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Kozara Gradiška	12	−1	16
14	Zvijezda 09	12	−13	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kozara gradiška winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Kozara Gradiška a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kozara Gradiška v Zvijezda 09~~1.58 – 0.78

~~Form · last six in 1st League - RS this season · since 23 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 8~~6 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kozara Gradiška win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kozara Gradiška win	56%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Zvijezda 09 win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Kozara Gradiška or draw	81%	–	–
Kozara Gradiška clean sheet	46%	–	–
Zvijezda 09 clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 9.6 7.7 3.0 1 15.1 11.2 4.5 2 11.5 8.9 3.5 3 6.1 4.7 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kozara Gradiška down, Zvijezda 09 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,437 1st League - RS matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st League - RS matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.2% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kozara Gradiška at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Zvijezda 09 away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Kozara Gradiška, 0.78 for Zvijezda 09. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KOZ 3–0 ZVI · ZVI 1–1 KOZ · KOZ 2–2 ZVI · ZVI 1–0 KOZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st League - RS this season · since 23 Sept

KOZARA GRADIŠKA

DWLDLL0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–4

ZVIJEZDA 09

LLDWLD1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Leotar	12	+26	32
2	Laktaši	12	+22	28
3	Potkozarje	12	+2	20
4	FK Majevica Lopare	11	+8	19
5	Drina Zvornik	12	+12	18
6	Kozara Gradiška	12	−1	16
7	Famos Vojkovići	12	−5	16
8	Rudar Prijedor	12	−4	15
9	FK Romanija Pale	12	−9	15
10	Slavija	12	−5	14
11	Sutjeska Foča	11	−6	11
12	Velež Nevesinje	12	−16	11
13	Omarska	12	−11	9
14	Zvijezda 09	12	−13	8