Zvijezda Gradačac v Čapljina prediction · 1st League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Zvijezda GradačacDrawČapljina

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Zvijezda Gradačac 63%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zvijezda Gradačac are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zvijezda Gradačac 63%, draw 20%, Čapljina 17%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Zvijezda Gradačac v ČapljinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Zvijezda Gradačac win63%

Draw20%

Čapljina win17%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundFBiH · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zvijezda Gradačac

Čapljina

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 1st League - FBiH

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Zvijezda Gradačac	10	−2	8
14	Čapljina	10	−10	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zvijezda gradačac winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:03 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Zvijezda Gradačac a 63% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zvijezda Gradačac v Čapljina~~1.94 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in 1st League - FBiH this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 8 v 8~~12 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zvijezda Gradačac win

Published at 64%, 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zvijezda Gradačac win	63%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Čapljina win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Zvijezda Gradačac or draw	83%	–	–
Zvijezda Gradačac clean sheet	43%	–	–
Čapljina clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.4%

0123450 5.8 6.0 2.3 1 12.4 9.4 4.3 2 11.2 9.5 4.1 3 7.3 6.2 2.7 4 3.6 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zvijezda Gradačac down, Čapljina across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,193 1st League - FBiH matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st League - FBiH matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.0% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Zvijezda Gradačac at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Čapljina away: 0.00 scored, 2.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Zvijezda Gradačac, 0.86 for Čapljina. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st League - FBiH this season · since 12 Sept

ZVIJEZDA GRADAČAC

DLWDLL1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

ČAPLJINA

LLLWLD0–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Posušje	10	+8	24
2	Travnik	10	+8	22
3	Stupčanica Olovo	10	+14	20
4	Igman Konjic	10	+5	19
5	Sloboda Tuzla	10	+9	18
6	GOŠK Gabela	10	+5	17
7	Bratstvo Gračanica	10	0	14
8	TOŠK Tešanj	10	0	14
9	Jedinstvo Bihać	10	+5	13
10	Budućnost Banovići	10	−8	10
11	Vitez	10	−6	9
12	Zvijezda Gradačac	10	−2	8
13	Rudar Kakanj	10	−8	8
14	Čapljina	10	−10	8
15	Tomislav	10	−13	8
16	Radnik Hadžići	10	−7	7