Vitez v TOŠK Tešanj prediction · 1st League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VitezDrawTOŠK Tešanj

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Vitez 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vitez are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vitez 42%, draw 26%, TOŠK Tešanj 32%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Vitez v TOŠK TešanjBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Vitez win42%

Draw26%

TOŠK Tešanj win32%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:30

RoundFBiH · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vitez

TOŠK Tešanj

7Days since last match14

Last match: 24 Oct · 1st League - FBiH

Last match: 17 Oct · 1st League - FBiH

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	TOŠK Tešanj	10	0	14
10	Vitez	11	−5	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vitez winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Vitez a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vitez v TOŠK Tešanj~~1.31 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in 1st League - FBiH this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 14~~10 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vitez win	42%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
TOŠK Tešanj win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Vitez or draw	68%	–	–
Vitez clean sheet	34%	–	–
TOŠK Tešanj clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 8.6 10.7 5.4 2.0 1 12.7 12.0 6.9 2.5 2 7.8 8.3 4.5 3 3.4 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vitez down, TOŠK Tešanj across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,199 1st League - FBiH matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st League - FBiH matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vitez at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). TOŠK Tešanj away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Vitez, 1.09 for TOŠK Tešanj. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TOS 1–0 VIT · VIT 2–1 TOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st League - FBiH this season · since 13 Sept

VITEZ

LWLLWW0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1

TOŠK TEŠANJ

LWWWDD1–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Posušje	11	+10	27
2	Travnik	11	+12	25
3	Sloboda Tuzla	11	+10	21
4	Stupčanica Olovo	11	+13	20
5	Igman Konjic	11	+4	19
6	GOŠK Gabela	10	+5	17
7	Bratstvo Gračanica	10	0	14
8	TOŠK Tešanj	10	0	14
9	Jedinstvo Bihać	11	+1	13
10	Vitez	11	−5	12
11	Zvijezda Gradačac	11	+1	11
12	Radnik Hadžići	11	−6	10
13	Budućnost Banovići	11	−9	10
14	Rudar Kakanj	10	−8	8
15	Čapljina	11	−13	8
16	Tomislav	11	−15	8