Vitez v Tomislav prediction · 1st League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Vitez 2–1 Tomislav VITEZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vitez win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.421

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vitez are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vitez 47%, draw 23%, Tomislav 29%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Vitez v TomislavBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vitez win47%

Draw23%

Tomislav win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundFBiH · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vitez

Tomislav

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 1st League - FBiH

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Tomislav	9	−12	8
16	Vitez	9	−7	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vitez winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Vitez a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.2, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vitez v Tomislav~~1.56 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in 1st League - FBiH this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 8~~16 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vitez win	47%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Tomislav win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Vitez or draw	71%	–	–
Vitez clean sheet	32%	–	–
Tomislav clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.1%

0123450 6.0 8.6 4.5 1 11.1 10.9 6.8 2.7 2 7.9 9.0 5.2 2.1 3 4.1 4.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vitez down, Tomislav across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,185 1st League - FBiH matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st League - FBiH matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.2% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vitez at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tomislav away: 1.33 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Vitez, 1.17 for Tomislav. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TOM 3–0 VIT · VIT 0–0 TOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st League - FBiH this season · since 5 Sept

VITEZ

LDLWLL1–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–2

TOMISLAV

LWDDLW0–4 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Travnik	9	+9	22
2	Posušje	9	+7	21
3	Stupčanica Olovo	9	+14	19
4	Sloboda Tuzla	9	+9	17
5	GOŠK Gabela	9	+5	16
6	Igman Konjic	9	+4	16
7	TOŠK Tešanj	9	0	13
8	Jedinstvo Bihać	9	+5	12
9	Bratstvo Gračanica	9	−1	11
10	Budućnost Banovići	9	−8	9
11	Zvijezda Gradačac	9	−1	8
12	Tomislav	9	−12	8
13	Radnik Hadžići	9	−6	7
14	Rudar Kakanj	9	−8	7
15	Čapljina	9	−10	7
16	Vitez	9	−7	6