Tomislav v Posušje prediction · 1st League

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Tomislav 1–3 Posušje TOMISLAV WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tomislav win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.683

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tomislav are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tomislav 43%, draw 24%, Posušje 33%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Tomislav v PosušjeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Tomislav win43%

Draw24%

Posušje win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundFBiH · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tomislav

Posušje

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 1st League - FBiH

Last match: 18 Oct · 1st League - FBiH

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tomislav winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 01:44 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Tomislav a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tomislav v Posušje~~1.47 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in 1st League - FBiH this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 8 v 24~~15 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tomislav win

Published at 44%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tomislav win	43%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Posušje win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Tomislav or draw	67%	–	–
Tomislav clean sheet	29%	–	–
Posušje clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.1 9.0 5.2 2.2 1 10.4 11.2 7.4 3.2 2 7.0 8.6 5.4 2.3 3 3.5 4.2 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tomislav down, Posušje across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,193 1st League - FBiH matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st League - FBiH matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.0% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tomislav at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Posušje away: 1.40 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Tomislav, 1.26 for Posušje. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~TOM 1–1 POS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st League - FBiH this season · since 12 Sept

TOMISLAV

WDDLWL2–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–4 · 1–0 · 1–2

POSUŠJE

WWDWWW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Posušje	10	+8	24
2	Travnik	10	+8	22
3	Stupčanica Olovo	10	+14	20
4	Igman Konjic	10	+5	19
5	Sloboda Tuzla	10	+9	18
6	GOŠK Gabela	10	+5	17
7	Bratstvo Gračanica	10	0	14
8	TOŠK Tešanj	10	0	14
9	Jedinstvo Bihać	10	+5	13
10	Budućnost Banovići	10	−8	10
11	Vitez	10	−6	9
12	Zvijezda Gradačac	10	−2	8
13	Rudar Kakanj	10	−8	8
14	Čapljina	10	−10	8
15	Tomislav	10	−13	8
16	Radnik Hadžići	10	−7	7