Stupčanica Olovo v GOŠK Gabela prediction · 1st League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:30

Stupčanica Olovo 1–1 GOŠK Gabela STUPČANICA OLOVO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stupčanica Olovo win~~54%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.942

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.935

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stupčanica Olovo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stupčanica Olovo 54%, draw 23%, GOŠK Gabela 23%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Stupčanica Olovo v GOŠK GabelaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Stupčanica Olovo win54%

Draw23%

GOŠK Gabela win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundFBiH · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stupčanica Olovo

GOŠK Gabela

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 1st League - FBiH

Last match: 11 Oct · 1st League - FBiH

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Stupčanica Olovo	9	+14	19
6	GOŠK Gabela	9	+5	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stupčanica olovo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market58%

Us54%

~~Market~~58%

We make Stupčanica Olovo a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stupčanica Olovo v GOŠK Gabela~~1.68 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in 1st League - FBiH this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 16~~3 v 6

~~The market · Stupčanica Olovo win~~58% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stupčanica Olovo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stupčanica Olovo win	54%	58%	−4
Draw	23%	25%	−2
GOŠK Gabela win	23%	17%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	49%	49%	0
Both teams to score	49%	49%	0
Over 1.5 goals	73%	72%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	29%	−1
Stupčanica Olovo or draw	77%	83%	−6
Stupčanica Olovo clean sheet	38%	–	–
GOŠK Gabela clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.5%

0123450 6.7 7.7 3.4 1 12.5 10.7 5.5 2 9.8 9.4 4.6 3 5.5 5.3 2.6 4 2.4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stupčanica Olovo down, GOŠK Gabela across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,191 1st League - FBiH matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st League - FBiH matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.2% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stupčanica Olovo at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). GOŠK Gabela away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Stupčanica Olovo, 0.98 for GOŠK Gabela. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~GOS 1–2 STU · STU 0–0 GOS · GOS 0–3 STU · STU 1–0 GOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st League - FBiH this season · since 6 Sept

STUPČANICA OLOVO

WLWLDW3–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–1

GOŠK GABELA

WWLLDL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Travnik	9	+9	22
2	Posušje	9	+7	21
3	Stupčanica Olovo	9	+14	19
4	Igman Konjic	10	+5	19
5	Sloboda Tuzla	10	+9	18
6	GOŠK Gabela	9	+5	16
7	Bratstvo Gračanica	10	0	14
8	TOŠK Tešanj	10	0	14
9	Jedinstvo Bihać	10	+5	13
10	Budućnost Banovići	10	−8	10
11	Vitez	10	−6	9
12	Zvijezda Gradačac	10	−2	8
13	Rudar Kakanj	10	−8	8
14	Čapljina	10	−10	8
15	Tomislav	10	−13	8
16	Radnik Hadžići	10	−7	7