Sloboda Tuzla v Stupčanica Olovo prediction · 1st League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sloboda TuzlaDrawStupčanica Olovo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Sloboda Tuzla 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sloboda Tuzla are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sloboda Tuzla 50%, draw 24%, Stupčanica Olovo 26%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Sloboda Tuzla v Stupčanica OlovoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sloboda Tuzla win50%

Draw24%

Stupčanica Olovo win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundFBiH · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sloboda Tuzla

Stupčanica Olovo

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 1st League - FBiH

Last match: 18 Oct · 1st League - FBiH

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Stupčanica Olovo	10	+14	20
5	Sloboda Tuzla	10	+9	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sloboda tuzla winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:03 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Sloboda Tuzla a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sloboda Tuzla v Stupčanica Olovo~~1.52 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in 1st League - FBiH this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 20~~5 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sloboda Tuzla win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sloboda Tuzla win	50%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Stupčanica Olovo win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Sloboda Tuzla or draw	74%	–	–
Sloboda Tuzla clean sheet	37%	–	–
Stupčanica Olovo clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%

0123450 7.5 8.8 4.1 1 12.8 11.3 6.1 2.1 2 9.1 9.0 4.6 3 4.7 4.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sloboda Tuzla down, Stupčanica Olovo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,193 1st League - FBiH matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st League - FBiH matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.0% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sloboda Tuzla at home: 2.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Stupčanica Olovo away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Sloboda Tuzla, 1.01 for Stupčanica Olovo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~STU 1–1 SLO · SLO 0–1 STU · STU 0–1 SLO · SLO 1–0 STU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st League - FBiH this season · since 12 Sept

SLOBODA TUZLA

DWWLWD1–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–0

STUPČANICA OLOVO

LWLDWD1–2 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Posušje	10	+8	24
2	Travnik	10	+8	22
3	Stupčanica Olovo	10	+14	20
4	Igman Konjic	10	+5	19
5	Sloboda Tuzla	10	+9	18
6	GOŠK Gabela	10	+5	17
7	Bratstvo Gračanica	10	0	14
8	TOŠK Tešanj	10	0	14
9	Jedinstvo Bihać	10	+5	13
10	Budućnost Banovići	10	−8	10
11	Vitez	10	−6	9
12	Zvijezda Gradačac	10	−2	8
13	Rudar Kakanj	10	−8	8
14	Čapljina	10	−10	8
15	Tomislav	10	−13	8
16	Radnik Hadžići	10	−7	7