Rudar Kakanj v Zvijezda Gradačac prediction · 1st League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Rudar KakanjDrawZvijezda Gradačac

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Rudar Kakanj 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Rudar Kakanj just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Rudar Kakanj 37%, draw 27%, Zvijezda Gradačac 36%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Rudar Kakanj v Zvijezda GradačacBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Rudar Kakanj win37%

Draw27%

Zvijezda Gradačac win36%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:30

RoundFBiH · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rudar Kakanj

Zvijezda Gradačac

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 1st League - FBiH

Last match: 24 Oct · 1st League - FBiH

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Zvijezda Gradačac	11	+1	11
14	Rudar Kakanj	10	−8	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rudar kakanj winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Rudar Kakanj a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rudar Kakanj v Zvijezda Gradačac~~1.16 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in 1st League - FBiH this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 11~~14 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rudar Kakanj win	37%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Zvijezda Gradačac win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Rudar Kakanj or draw	64%	–	–
Rudar Kakanj clean sheet	33%	–	–
Zvijezda Gradačac clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%

0123450 9.8 12.4 6.5 2.5 1 12.6 12.1 7.2 2.8 2 6.8 7.4 4.1 3 2.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rudar Kakanj down, Zvijezda Gradačac across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,199 1st League - FBiH matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st League - FBiH matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rudar Kakanj at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Zvijezda Gradačac away: 0.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Rudar Kakanj, 1.13 for Zvijezda Gradačac. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~RUD 1–1 ZVI · ZVI 3–0 RUD · ZVI 1–1 RUD · ZVI 3–1 RUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st League - FBiH this season · since 12 Sept

RUDAR KAKANJ

LWDWLD0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

ZVIJEZDA GRADAČAC

LWDLLW0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Posušje	11	+10	27
2	Travnik	11	+12	25
3	Sloboda Tuzla	11	+10	21
4	Stupčanica Olovo	11	+13	20
5	Igman Konjic	11	+4	19
6	GOŠK Gabela	10	+5	17
7	Bratstvo Gračanica	10	0	14
8	TOŠK Tešanj	10	0	14
9	Jedinstvo Bihać	11	+1	13
10	Vitez	11	−5	12
11	Zvijezda Gradačac	11	+1	11
12	Radnik Hadžići	11	−6	10
13	Budućnost Banovići	11	−9	10
14	Rudar Kakanj	10	−8	8
15	Čapljina	11	−13	8
16	Tomislav	11	−15	8