Posušje v Travnik prediction · 1st League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:30

Posušje 1–0 Travnik POSUŠJE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Posušje win~~48%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.407

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.417

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Posušje are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Posušje 48%, draw 25%, Travnik 27%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Posušje v TravnikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Posušje win48%

Draw25%

Travnik win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:30

RoundFBiH · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Posušje

Travnik

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · 1st League - FBiH

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · posušje winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market47%

Us48%

~~Market~~47%

We make Posušje a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Posušje v Travnik~~1.41 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in 1st League - FBiH this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 21 v 22~~2 v 1

~~The market · Posušje win~~47% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Posušje win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Posušje win	48%	47%	+1
Draw	25%	29%	−4
Travnik win	27%	24%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	42%	45%	−3
Both teams to score	45%	49%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	68%	69%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	25%	−3
Posušje or draw	73%	76%	−3
Posušje clean sheet	38%	–	–
Travnik clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 8.8 9.8 4.4 1 13.8 11.7 6.0 2 9.2 8.7 4.2 3 4.4 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Posušje down, Travnik across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,191 1st League - FBiH matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1st League - FBiH matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.2% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Posušje at home: 1.50 scored, 0.25 conceded a game (last 4). Travnik away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Posušje, 0.97 for Travnik. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~TRA 1–2 POS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1st League - FBiH this season · since 5 Sept

POSUŠJE

WWWDWW2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

TRAVNIK

WWWWDL3–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Travnik	9	+9	22
2	Posušje	9	+7	21
3	Stupčanica Olovo	9	+14	19
4	Igman Konjic	10	+5	19
5	Sloboda Tuzla	10	+9	18
6	GOŠK Gabela	9	+5	16
7	Bratstvo Gračanica	10	0	14
8	TOŠK Tešanj	10	0	14
9	Jedinstvo Bihać	10	+5	13
10	Budućnost Banovići	10	−8	10
11	Vitez	10	−6	9
12	Zvijezda Gradačac	10	−2	8
13	Rudar Kakanj	10	−8	8
14	Čapljina	10	−10	8
15	Tomislav	10	−13	8
16	Radnik Hadžići	10	−7	7