Real Potosí v Bolívar prediction · Copa de la División Profesional

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 02:00

Real Potosí 3–1 Bolívar BOLÍVAR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bolívar win~~38%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.681

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.956

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bolívar win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bolívar was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 33–29–38
1′KICK-OFF Real Potosí v Bolívar
6′We said Bolívar at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 62–21–16
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Real Potosí 1–0 Bolívar
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Bolívar win: 38% at kick-off, 16% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Real Potosí win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Bolívar win 38%)
8′7′: Igor Soares on the scoresheet for Real Potosí, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 63–22–16
16′We said Bolívar at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
22′We said Bolívar at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 87–10–4
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Real Potosí 2–0 Bolívar
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Bolívar win: 38% at kick-off, 4% now
23′Real Potosí ahead on 22′ through J. Rivas. 2–0. 2–0 · 87–9–4
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Real Potosí 2–1 Bolívar
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Bolívar win: 38% at kick-off, 13% now
26′S. Echeverria scores for Bolívar on 25′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 65–22–12
30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 66–22–12
30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' F. Supayabe · Real Potosí
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' L. Justiniano · Bolívar
40′We said Bolívar at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 68–22–9
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Bolívar win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
45′SECOND HALF Real Potosí 2–1 Bolívar
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Bolívar · On: Robson Matheus · Off: L. Justiniano
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' G. Umana · Real Potosí
48′HALF-TIME Real Potosí 2–1 Bolívar
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' L. L. Chavez Cruz · Bolívar
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' B. Miranda · Bolívar
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' G. Anasgo · Real Potosí
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Real Potosí · On: J. Rojas · Off: Igor Soares
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Bolívar · On: J. Velasquez · Off: B. Miranda
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Bolívar · On: D. Romero · Off: L. L. Chavez Cruz
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Real Potosí · On: L. Ali · Off: B. Condori
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Real Potosí · On: S. Plaza · Off: J. Rivas
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Real Potosí · On: L. Gimenez · Off: G. Anasgo
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Bolívar · On: D. Asprilla · Off: M. Cauteruccio
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' I. Cardenas · Real Potosí
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' J. Sagredo · Bolívar
79′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Real Potosí 3–1 Bolívar
80′80′: L. Ali on the scoresheet for Real Potosí, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
81′79′: L. Ali on the scoresheet for Real Potosí, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Bolívar · On: C. A. Melgar · Off: E. Saavedra
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' S. Plaza · Real Potosí
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' C. Martinez · Real Potosí
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' D. Cuellar · Real Potosí
FTFULL TIME Real Potosí 3–1 Bolívar
FTReal Potosí 3–1 Bolívar · Bolívar win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bolívar are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Potosí 33%, draw 29%, Bolívar 38%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Real Potosí v BolívarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Real Potosí win33%

Draw29%

Bolívar win38%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 23:30

RoundQuarter-finals

Line-ups

Real Potosí

Bolívar

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Potosí

Bolívar

5Days since last match3

Last match: 16 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Real Potosí

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Martinez

17 D. Cuellar

22 F. Supayabe

4 K. Villegas

44 S. Severiche

19 A. Brito

41 Igor Soares

8 I. Cardenas

3 G. Anasgo

12 B. Condori

18 J. Rivas

Coach · Jhon Garcia

Substitutes

25 · D. Sandy

10 · V. Castellon

24 · A. Lino

6 · J. Thomas

90 · L. Gimenez

13 · J. Vargas

31 · R. Terrazas

11 · M. Gomez

30 · J. Alipaz

23 · L. Ali

91 · S. Plaza

77 · J. Rojas

Bolívar

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Lampe

8 L. Paz

33 F. Mena

5 S. Echeverria

2 J. Sagredo

26 E. Saavedra

23 L. Justiniano

6 E. Vaca Moreno

18 L. L. Chavez Cruz

11 B. Miranda

9 M. Cauteruccio

Coach · Alejandro Restrepo

Substitutes

13 · D. Mendez

3 · X. Arreaga

80 · C. A. Melgar

35 · E. Freita

99 · D. Batallini

19 · J. Garcia

14 · Robson Matheus

7 · J. Velasquez

20 · C. Sejas

22 · A. Ayhuana

27 · D. Asprilla

77 · D. Romero

Our number · bolívar winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 17 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

38% The market53%

Us38%

~~Market~~53%

We make Bolívar a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Potosí v Bolívar~~1.14 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Copa de la División Profesional this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D3 L0

~~The market · Bolívar win~~53% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bolívar win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Potosí win	33%	22%	+11
Draw	29%	25%	+4
Bolívar win	38%	53%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	43%	57%	−14
Both teams to score	48%	58%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	69%	79%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	22%	37%	−15
Real Potosí or draw	62%	47%	+15
Real Potosí clean sheet	29%	–	–
Bolívar clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 10.3 11.0 7.2 3.0 1 9.8 13.3 7.9 3.3 2 5.9 7.2 4.5 3 2.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Potosí down, Bolívar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,589 Primera División matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 176 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Potosí at home: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Bolívar away: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Real Potosí, 1.25 for Bolívar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~BOL 2–1 REA · REA 1–3 BOL · BOL 3–1 REA · REA 0–2 BOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Copa de la División Profesional this season · since 11 Sept

REAL POTOSÍ

DWLWDW2–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 4–2

BOLÍVAR

DDWWWD1–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 1–1

Real Potosí v Bolívar

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Real Potosí

Bolívar

Rest & schedule

Real Potosí

Bolívar

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Real Potosí

Bolívar

Match statistics

Line-ups

Real Potosí

Bolívar

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Copa de la División Profesional this season · since 11 Sept