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Oriente Petrolero v Nacional Potosí

Oriente Petrolero
3–2Full time
Nacional Potosí

Copa de la División Profesional · THU 22 OCT · Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera Costas

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 04:05
Oriente Petrolero 3–2 Nacional Potosí ORIENTE PETROLERO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Oriente Petrolero win51%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.366
The market’s Brier score0.402

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Oriente Petrolero win at 51%.
  2. 0′KICK-OFF Oriente Petrolero v Nacional Potosí
  3. 6′Little has changed for our model: Oriente Petrolero 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
  4. 23′We said Oriente Petrolero at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–16–9
  5. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Oriente Petrolero 1–0 Nacional Potosí
  6. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Oriente Petrolero win: 51% at kick-off, 75% now
  7. 24′Oriente Petrolero ahead on 24′ through J. Herrera. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–16–9
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–8
  9. 36′SUBSTITUTION · 37' Oriente Petrolero · On: O. Siles · Off: J. Herrera
  10. 37′We said Oriente Petrolero at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–2
  11. 37′J. Escobar scores for Oriente Petrolero on 38′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–2
  12. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Oriente Petrolero 2–0 Nacional Potosí
  13. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Oriente Petrolero win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Oriente Petrolero 2–0 Nacional Potosí
  15. 45′SECOND HALF Oriente Petrolero 2–0 Nacional Potosí
  16. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nacional Potosí · On: P. Azogue · Off: E. Cano
  17. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nacional Potosí · On: T. Tobar · Off: D. Villalba
  18. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nacional Potosí · On: J. Arce Pari · Off: K. Medina
  19. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nacional Potosí · On: K. Quiroz · Off: M. Solis Corrected
  20. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' C. Abastoflor · Nacional Potosí
  21. 50′We said Oriente Petrolero at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  22. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' J. Lovera · Oriente Petrolero
  23. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' O. Siles · Oriente Petrolero
  24. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 53' L. Demiquel · Nacional Potosí
  25. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Oriente Petrolero 3–0 Nacional Potosí
  26. 56′PENALTY MISSED · 56' J. Flores · Oriente Petrolero
  27. 57′56′: J. Flores on the scoresheet for Oriente Petrolero, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  28. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' J. Flores · Oriente Petrolero
  29. 61′We said Oriente Petrolero at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  30. 69′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  31. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Oriente Petrolero 3–1 Nacional Potosí
  32. 71′Nacional Potosí pull one back on 70′ through D. Hoyos. 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  33. 72′We said Oriente Petrolero at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 3–2 · 84–14–2
  34. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Oriente Petrolero 3–2 Nacional Potosí
  35. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Oriente Petrolero win: 51% at kick-off, 84% now
  36. 73′We said Oriente Petrolero at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 3–2 · 85–14–2
  37. 75′D. Hoyos scores for Nacional Potosí on 73′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 86–13–1
  38. 76′5 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 87–12–1
  39. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Oriente Petrolero · On: D. Rodriguez · Off: J. Flores
  40. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Oriente Petrolero · On: C. Saucedo · Off: N. Nacif
  41. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Oriente Petrolero win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
  42. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Nacional Potosí · On: M. Tomianovic · Off: L. Demiquel
  43. 88′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Nacional Potosí
  44. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' C. Abastoflor · Nacional Potosí
  45. 90′Nacional Potosí are down to ten from 89′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–2 · 96–4–0
  46. FTFULL TIME Oriente Petrolero 3–2 Nacional Potosí
  47. FTOriente Petrolero 3–2 Nacional Potosí · Oriente Petrolero win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oriente Petrolero are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oriente Petrolero 51%, draw 24%, Nacional Potosí 25%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Oriente Petrolero v Nacional PotosíBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Oriente Petrolero win51%
Draw24%
Nacional Potosí win25%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 01:30

RoundQuarter-finals

VenueEstadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera Costas

Line-ups

Oriente Petrolero

Nacional Potosí

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oriente Petrolero

Nacional Potosí

4Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Oriente Petrolero

Formation not confirmed

13 J. Bernal

23 J. Rojas

3 Mizael Monteiro

44 F. Lopez

42 D. Roca

20 J. Lovera

11 L. Vaca

77 J. Herrera

91 N. Nacif

7 J. Flores

29 J. Escobar

Coach · Gustavo Florentin

Substitutes

51 · A. Alba

28 · J. Velasco

6 · D. Rodriguez

14 · E. Taborga

4 · M. Bonilla

18 · B. Mamani

8 · O. Siles

31 · G. Justiniano

33 · C. Saucedo

19 · F. Perez

21 · M. Aponte

35 · J. Vaca

Nacional Potosí

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Arauz

34 K. Medina

5 S. Alvarez

33 L. Demiquel

16 A. Torrico

20 E. Cano

21 O. Baldomar

22 D. Hoyos

7 M. Solis

99 D. Villalba

27 C. Abastoflor

Coach · Dailer Gutierrez

Substitutes

23 · P. Galindo

2 · R. Avila

25 · J. Orellana

18 · P. Azogue

26 · K. Quiroz

11 · M. Tomianovic

14 · Juan Batista

30 · Y. Martinez

9 · T. Tobar

19 · W. Alvarez

28 · S. Pena

15 · J. Arce Pari

Our number · oriente petrolero winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 21 Oct 04:10 · locked at kick-off
51% The market48%
Us51%
Market48%

We make Oriente Petrolero a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Oriente Petrolero v Nacional Potosí1.82 – 1.23
Form · last six in Copa de la División Profesional this season · since 9 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1
The market · Oriente Petrolero win48% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 16 OCT 00:0022 OCT 01:14
Our probability · Oriente Petrolero win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Oriente Petrolero win51%48%+3
Draw24%26%−2
Nacional Potosí win25%26%−1
Over 2.5 goals58%56%+2
Both teams to score59%59%0
Over 1.5 goals81%78%+3
Over 3.5 goals36%35%+1
Oriente Petrolero or draw75%74%+1
Oriente Petrolero clean sheet30%––
Nacional Potosí clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%
0123450 5.5 5.4 3.6 1 8.2 11.0 6.4 2.7 2 7.8 9.4 5.8 2.4 3 4.8 5.7 3.5 4 2.2 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Oriente Petrolero down, Nacional Potosí across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.60
Over 2.58 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsORI 1–0 NAC · ORI 1–1 NAC · NAC 3–1 ORI · ORI 2–2 NAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Copa de la División Profesional this season · since 9 Sept

ORIENTE PETROLERO

WWLDLW1–0 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0

NACIONAL POTOSÍ

DLWDWW2–2 · 0–1 · 9–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–2