Independiente Petrolero v Aurora prediction · Copa de la División Profesional

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 02:30

Independiente Petrolero 4–0 Aurora INDEPENDIENTE PETROLERO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Independiente Petrolero win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.387

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Independiente Petrolero win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Independiente Petrolero was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–24–27
1′KICK-OFF Independiente Petrolero v Aurora
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' A. Amarilla · Aurora
33′We published Independiente Petrolero at 49%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–17–9
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Independiente Petrolero 1–0 Aurora
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Independiente Petrolero win: 49% at kick-off, 74% now
34′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–8
34′SUBSTITUTION · 34' Aurora · On: E. Sanchez · Off: H. Sanchez
36′Independiente Petrolero ahead on 34′ through L. Crescencio. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
37′SUBSTITUTION · 37' Independiente Petrolero · On: A. Mercado · Off: G. Cristaldo
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' A. Terrazas · Aurora
40′We published Independiente Petrolero at 49%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–8
45′SECOND HALF Independiente Petrolero 1–0 Aurora
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Independiente Petrolero 1–1 Aurora
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Independiente Petrolero win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Aurora · On: M. Rangel · Off: M. Ortiz
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Aurora · On: H. Vaca · Off: A. Terrazas
48′GOAL DISALLOWED · 48' Aurora
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Independiente Petrolero win: 49% at kick-off, 76% now
50′HALF-TIME Independiente Petrolero 1–0 Aurora
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' D. Rojas · Independiente Petrolero
60′We published Independiente Petrolero at 49%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Independiente Petrolero 2–0 Aurora
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Independiente Petrolero win: 49% at kick-off, 96% now
62′A. Mercado scores for Independiente Petrolero on 61′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Independiente Petrolero 3–0 Aurora
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Independiente Petrolero win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
64′63′: Roni Santos on the scoresheet for Independiente Petrolero, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
65′We published Independiente Petrolero at 49%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Aurora · On: M. Velazco · Off: H. Vaca
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Aurora · On: I. Huayhuata · Off: E. Sanchez
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Independiente Petrolero · On: S. Chavez Suarez · Off: K. Sanchez
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Independiente Petrolero · On: Gean · Off: G. Alvarez
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' G. Mendoza · Independiente Petrolero
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Independiente Petrolero · On: C. Urdininea · Off: D. Rojas
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Independiente Petrolero · On: R. Cardozo · Off: Jeferson Carioca
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' I. Vidaurre · Aurora
81′🟥 RED CARD · 81' Aurora
82′A red card for Aurora on 81′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–0 · 100–0–0
93′🟥 RED CARD · 90+3' Aurora
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' L. Barro · Aurora
95′Aurora are down to nine from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 4–0 · 100–0–0
95′Independiente Petrolero ahead on 90′ through Willie. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' L. Barro · Aurora
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Independiente Petrolero 4–0 Aurora
FTFULL TIME Independiente Petrolero 4–0 Aurora
FTIndependiente Petrolero 4–0 Aurora · Independiente Petrolero win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Independiente Petrolero are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Independiente Petrolero 49%, draw 24%, Aurora 27%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Independiente Petrolero v AuroraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Independiente Petrolero win49%

Draw24%

Aurora win27%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 00:00

RoundQuarter-finals

Line-ups

Independiente Petrolero

Aurora

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Independiente Petrolero

Aurora

3Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Independiente Petrolero

Formation not confirmed

12 J. Vera

2 S. Torres

50 Roni Santos

3 L. Crescencio

34 G. Mendoza

26 K. Sanchez

6 D. Rojas

19 G. Cristaldo

93 Willie

99 Jeferson Carioca

91 G. Alvarez

Coach · Leitao Thiago

Substitutes

40 · L. Morales

20 · A. Mercado

15 · J. Bejarano

28 · W. Soleto

5 · L. Palma

4 · L. Rodriguez

7 · R. Cardozo

14 · C. Urdininea

39 · P. Grass

68 · D. Morales

9 · Gean

16 · S. Chavez Suarez

Aurora

Formation not confirmed

12 R. Cordano

16 L. Barro

22 J. Velazquez

4 I. Vidaurre

21 M. Ortiz

5 A. Amarilla

69 A. Terrazas

14 H. Sanchez

70 J. Torrico

8 L. Viviani

10 R. Ramallo

Coach · David Diaz

Substitutes

1 · J. Terrazas

23 · I. Huayhuata

32 · S. Altamirano

15 · J. Cordova

11 · H. Mojica

19 · E. Sanchez

7 · H. Vaca

25 · A. Rios

28 · O. Vaca

20 · A. Pacheco

9 · M. Rangel

90 · M. Velazco

Our number · independiente petrolero winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Independiente Petrolero a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Independiente Petrolero v Aurora~~1.85 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Copa de la División Profesional this season · since 8 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D2 L0

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Independiente Petrolero win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Independiente Petrolero win	49%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Aurora win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Independiente Petrolero or draw	73%	–	–
Independiente Petrolero clean sheet	27%	–	–
Aurora clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.0 5.2 3.7 1 7.4 10.7 6.7 3.0 2 7.2 9.3 6.1 2.7 3 4.4 5.7 3.7 4 2.1 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Independiente Petrolero down, Aurora across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,589 Primera División matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 176 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Independiente Petrolero at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Aurora away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Independiente Petrolero, 1.32 for Aurora. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~IND 1–1 AUR · AUR 2–3 IND · IND 2–4 AUR · AUR 2–0 IND

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Copa de la División Profesional this season · since 8 Sept

INDEPENDIENTE PETROLERO

DWWWLW1–1 · 5–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–0

AURORA

WWWDDW1–0 · 4–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

Independiente Petrolero v Aurora

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Independiente Petrolero

Aurora

Rest & schedule

Independiente Petrolero

Aurora

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Independiente Petrolero

Aurora

Match statistics

Line-ups

Independiente Petrolero

Aurora

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Copa de la División Profesional this season · since 8 Sept