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Model 1.2

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Always Ready v The Strongest

Always Ready
1–1Full time
The Strongest

Copa de la División Profesional · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 03:35
Always Ready 1–1 The Strongest ALWAYS READY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Always Ready win65%
The market said56%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.091
The market’s Brier score0.936

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Always Ready win at 65%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Always Ready 65% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 64–20–16
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Always Ready v The Strongest
  4. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Always Ready win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
  5. 36′SUBSTITUTION · 35' Always Ready · On: J. Uzeda · Off: R. Lima
  6. 41′We said Always Ready at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 53–30–17
  7. 41′We said Always Ready at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–4
  8. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Always Ready 1–0 The Strongest
  9. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Always Ready win: 65% at kick-off, 83% now
  10. 42′J. Uzeda scores for Always Ready on 42′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–4
  11. 45′SECOND HALF Always Ready 1–0 The Strongest
  12. 46′The Strongest are down to ten from 45′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 83–13–4
  13. 46′🟥 RED CARD · 45+1' The Strongest
  14. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' C. D. Medina Rodriguez · Always Ready
  15. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' The Strongest · On: L. Cueto · Off: S. Melgar
  16. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' The Strongest · On: D. Lom · Off: Pachu
  17. 50′HALF-TIME Always Ready 1–0 The Strongest
  18. 53′We said Always Ready at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 47%. 1–1 · 47–37–17
  19. 53′53′: L. Cueto on the scoresheet for The Strongest, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 47–37–17
  20. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Always Ready 1–1 The Strongest
  21. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Always Ready win: 65% at kick-off, 47% now
  22. 54′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–1 · 46–37–16
  23. 55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' W. Saucedo · The Strongest
  24. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Always Ready win: 65% at kick-off, 45% now
  25. 57′We said Always Ready at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–40–16
  26. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Always Ready win 42%)
  27. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' A. Rambal · Always Ready
  28. 65′We said Always Ready at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 38–47–15
  29. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Always Ready · On: J. Godoy · Off: C. D. Medina Rodriguez
  30. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Always Ready · On: R. Gomez Miranda · Off: A. Quiroga
  31. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Always Ready · On: J. Amoroso · Off: E. Restrepo
  32. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Always Ready win: 65% at kick-off, 35% now
  33. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' The Strongest · On: K. Romay · Off: K. F. Salvatierra Flores
  34. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' The Strongest · On: E. Sossa · Off: K. Adin Chacon Arrascayta
  35. 70′We said Always Ready at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–53–13
  36. 74′We said Always Ready at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–59–12
  37. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Always Ready win: 65% at kick-off, 25% now
  38. 78′We said Always Ready at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–67–10
  39. 81′We said Always Ready at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–73–8
  40. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Always Ready win: 65% at kick-off, 15% now
  41. 84′We said Always Ready at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–81–6
  42. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Always Ready · On: C. Algaranaz · Off: N. Villarroel
  43. 88′We said Always Ready at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–4
  44. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' The Strongest · On: J. Arrascaita · Off: V. Cuellar
  45. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Always Ready win: 65% at kick-off, 5% now
  46. 93′We said Always Ready at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–95–2
  47. 94′1–1 at the end. Our 65% on Always Ready misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  48. FTFULL TIME Always Ready 1–1 The Strongest
  49. FTAlways Ready 1–1 The Strongest · Always Ready win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Always Ready are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Always Ready 65%, draw 19%, The Strongest 16%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Always Ready v The StrongestBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Always Ready win65%
Draw19%
The Strongest win16%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 01:00

RoundQuarter-finals

Line-ups

Always Ready

The Strongest

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Always Ready

The Strongest

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Always Ready

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Baroja

4 N. Villarroel

21 A. Rambal

26 E. Restrepo

14 C. D. Medina Rodriguez

5 A. Quiroga

18 C. Rodriguez

19 D. Torrico

6 R. Lima

10 J. Maraude

9 E. Triverio

Coach · Pablo Godoy

Substitutes

12 · S. Mustafa

36 · K. Estrada

27 · J. Ojeda

2 · J. Herrera

23 · J. Godoy

7 · J. Amoroso

29 · Ramon

11 · J. Uzeda

22 · R. Gomez Miranda

24 · C. Algaranaz

33 · C. M. Collazo Martinez

43 · S. Mamani

The Strongest

Formation not confirmed

12 D. Valdivia

22 W. Saucedo

4 M. Chiatti

5 A. Jusino

3 P. Pedraza

8 K. F. Salvatierra Flores

34 S. Melgar

6 J. Welch

16 V. Cuellar

24 K. Adin Chacon Arrascayta

99 Pachu

Coach · Carlos Paz Garcia Juan

Substitutes

33 · K. Mendoza

29 · Y. Portuncho

10 · R. Castro

17 · A. Estacio

30 · J. Arrascaita

7 · K. Romay

14 · D. Lom

9 · C. Ventura

26 · G. Sotomayor

36 · R. Ribera

40 · L. Cueto

41 · E. Sossa

Our number · always ready winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
65% The market56%
Us65%
Market56%

We make Always Ready a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Always Ready v The Strongest2.32 – 1.07
Form · last six in Copa de la División Profesional this season · since 9 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1
The market · Always Ready win56% · ours 65%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60%65%70% 15 OCT 04:3323 OCT 00:42
Our probability · Always Ready win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Always Ready win65%56%+9
Draw19%24%−5
The Strongest win16%21%−5
Over 2.5 goals65%61%+4
Both teams to score59%61%−2
Over 1.5 goals85%82%+3
Over 3.5 goals44%42%+2
Always Ready or draw84%79%+5
Always Ready clean sheet35%––
The Strongest clean sheet10%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%
0123450 4.0 3.3 1 7.5 8.8 4.4 2 9.0 9.4 5.0 3 7.0 7.3 3.9 4 4.1 4.3 2.3 5 2.0
under 2% 5% 12%+Always Ready down, The Strongest across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.90
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsTHE 2–1 ALW · ALW 0–1 THE · THE 2–3 ALW · THE 2–1 ALW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Copa de la División Profesional this season · since 9 Sept

ALWAYS READY

LLLDWL0–2 · 1–4 · 0–9 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 2–3

THE STRONGEST

WDWDWL2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 5–2 · 1–2