Hodio v Ayema prediction · Championnat National

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Hodio 1–1 Ayema HODIO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGUNDER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hodio win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.648

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hodio are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hodio 40%, draw 35%, Ayema 25%. Over 2.5 goals 23%, both teams to score 31%.

The AI’s read on Hodio v AyemaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hodio win40%

Draw35%

Ayema win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hodio

Ayema

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Championnat National (Benin)

Last match: 18 Oct · Championnat National (Benin)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Hodio	4	+2	5
14	Ayema	4	−2	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hodio winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Hodio a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 20%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hodio v Ayema~~0.96 – 0.69

~~Form · Championnat National this season · since 27 Sept~~W1 D2 L1 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 4~~10 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hodio win	40%	–	–
Draw	35%	–	–
Ayema win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	23%	–	–
Both teams to score	31%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	49%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	9%	–	–
Hodio or draw	75%	–	–
Hodio clean sheet	50%	–	–
Ayema clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 19.8%

0123450 19.8 12.9 4.6 1 18.0 12.8 4.3 2 8.8 6.0 2.1 3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hodio down, Ayema across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,759 Championnat National matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championnat National matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.1% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hodio at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ayema away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Hodio, 0.69 for Ayema. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HOD 1–1 AYE · AYE 1–0 HOD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Championnat National this season · since 27 Sept

HODIO

WDDL3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

AYEMA

LWLD1–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cavaliers	4	+10	10
2	Buffles	4	+5	10
3	ASPAC	4	+3	9
4	Bani Gansè	4	+3	8
5	Panthères	4	+2	7
6	AS Cotonou	4	0	7
7	Djeffa	4	−1	6
8	ASVO	4	−1	6
9	Kraké	4	−2	6
10	Hodio	4	+2	5
11	Damissa	4	+1	5
12	AS Sobemap	4	0	4
13	Coton Sport Ouidah	4	−2	4
14	Ayema	4	−2	4
15	Loto Popo	4	−3	4
16	Espoir Savalou	4	−3	2
17	Dragons	4	−5	1
18	Dynamo Abomey	4	−7	0