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Model 1.2

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Espoir Savalou v Buffles

Espoir Savalou
1–1Full time
Buffles

Championnat National · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51
Espoir Savalou 1–1 Buffles DRAW · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGUNDER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said a draw35%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.629

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Espoir Savalou 34%, draw 35%, Buffles 31%. Over 2.5 goals 23%, both teams to score 31%.

The AI’s read on Espoir Savalou v BufflesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Espoir Savalou win34%
Draw35%
Buffles win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Espoir Savalou

Buffles

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Championnat National (Benin)

Last match: 11 Oct · Championnat National (Benin)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Buffles3+59
17Espoir Savalou3−31

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
35% The market–
Us35%

We make the draw a 35% chance. The model expects 0.8–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 20%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Espoir Savalou v Buffles0.84 – 0.80
Form · Championnat National this season · since 26 SeptW0 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L0
Table places · points 1 v 917 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 11 OCT 04:0117 OCT 15:02
Our probability · Draw

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Espoir Savalou win34%––
Draw35%––
Buffles win31%––
Over 2.5 goals23%––
Both teams to score31%––
Over 1.5 goals49%––
Over 3.5 goals9%––
Espoir Savalou or draw69%––
Espoir Savalou clean sheet45%––
Buffles clean sheet43%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 19.9%
0123450 19.9 15.2 6.2 1 16.0 13.0 5.1 2 6.9 5.4 2.2 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Espoir Savalou down, Buffles across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.54 of 6
Both scored3 of 6
Last meetingsBUF 2–3 ESP · ESP 0–3 BUF · BUF 2–1 ESP · ESP 0–0 BUF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Championnat National this season · since 26 Sept

ESPOIR SAVALOU

LLD0–1 · 0–2 · 0–0

BUFFLES

WWW3–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Buffles3+59
2Cavaliers3+87
3Bani Gansè3+37
4ASPAC3+26
5Panthères3+26
6ASVO3+16
7AS Cotonou306
8Hodio3+35
9Coton Sport Ouidah304
10AS Sobemap303
11Ayema3−23
12Djeffa3−23
13Loto Popo3−33
14Kraké3−43
15Damissa3−12
16Dragons3−31
17Espoir Savalou3−31
18Dynamo Abomey3−60

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.