Dragons v ASPAC prediction · Championnat National

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Dragons 0–0 ASPAC ASPAC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ASPAC win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.726

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ASPAC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dragons 30%, draw 31%, ASPAC 39%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Dragons v ASPACBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dragons win30%

Draw31%

ASPAC win39%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dragons

ASPAC

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Championnat National (Benin)

Last match: 17 Oct · Championnat National (Benin)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	ASPAC	4	+3	9
17	Dragons	4	−5	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aspac winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make ASPAC a 39% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.1, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dragons v ASPAC~~0.94 – 1.13

~~Form · Championnat National this season · since 26 Sept~~W0 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 9~~17 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ASPAC win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dragons win	30%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
ASPAC win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Dragons or draw	61%	–	–
Dragons clean sheet	33%	–	–
ASPAC clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.8%

0123450 13.2 13.8 8.0 3.1 1 11.6 13.5 7.4 2.8 2 5.7 6.2 3.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dragons down, ASPAC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,759 Championnat National matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championnat National matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.1% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dragons at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). ASPAC away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Dragons, 1.13 for ASPAC. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DRA 3–2 ASP · ASP 4–1 DRA · ASP 1–1 DRA · DRA 2–1 ASP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Championnat National this season · since 26 Sept

DRAGONS

DLLL1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–2

ASPAC

WWLW1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cavaliers	4	+10	10
2	Buffles	4	+5	10
3	ASPAC	4	+3	9
4	Bani Gansè	4	+3	8
5	Panthères	4	+2	7
6	AS Cotonou	4	0	7
7	Djeffa	4	−1	6
8	ASVO	4	−1	6
9	Kraké	4	−2	6
10	Hodio	4	+2	5
11	Damissa	4	+1	5
12	AS Sobemap	4	0	4
13	Coton Sport Ouidah	4	−2	4
14	Ayema	4	−2	4
15	Loto Popo	4	−3	4
16	Espoir Savalou	4	−3	2
17	Dragons	4	−5	1
18	Dynamo Abomey	4	−7	0