Ayema v Bani Gansè prediction · Championnat National

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:30

Ayema 1–1 Bani Gansè AYEMA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGUNDER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ayema win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.639

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ayema are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ayema 40%, draw 35%, Bani Gansè 25%. Over 2.5 goals 22%, both teams to score 30%.

The AI’s read on Ayema v Bani GansèBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ayema win40%

Draw35%

Bani Gansè win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ayema

Bani Gansè

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Championnat National (Benin)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Bani Gansè	3	+3	7
13	Ayema	3	−2	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ayema winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Ayema a 40% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 21%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ayema v Bani Gansè~~0.94 – 0.67

~~Form · Championnat National this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 7~~13 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ayema win	40%	–	–
Draw	35%	–	–
Bani Gansè win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	22%	–	–
Both teams to score	30%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	48%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	8%	–	–
Ayema or draw	75%	–	–
Ayema clean sheet	51%	–	–
Bani Gansè clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 20.6%

0123450 20.6 13.2 4.5 1 18.4 12.6 4.2 2 8.8 5.8 3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ayema down, Bani Gansè across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,755 Championnat National matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championnat National matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.6% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ayema at home: 0.83 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bani Gansè away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Ayema, 0.67 for Bani Gansè. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~AYE 1–0 BAN · BAN 1–0 AYE · BAN 1–1 AYE · AYE 0–1 BAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Championnat National this season · since 26 Sept

AYEMA

LWL1–3 · 1–0 · 1–2

BANI GANSÈ

DWW1–1 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cavaliers	4	+10	10
2	Buffles	4	+5	10
3	ASPAC	4	+3	9
4	Bani Gansè	3	+3	7
5	Panthères	3	+2	6
6	AS Cotonou	3	0	6
7	Djeffa	4	−1	6
8	ASVO	4	−1	6
9	Hodio	4	+2	5
10	Damissa	4	+1	5
11	Coton Sport Ouidah	4	−2	4
12	AS Sobemap	3	0	3
13	Ayema	3	−2	3
14	Loto Popo	3	−3	3
15	Kraké	3	−4	3
16	Espoir Savalou	4	−3	2
17	Dragons	3	−3	1
18	Dynamo Abomey	4	−7	0