ASPAC v Hodio prediction · Championnat National

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

ASPAC 1–0 Hodio ASPAC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said ASPAC win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.406

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ASPAC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ASPAC 48%, draw 30%, Hodio 22%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on ASPAC v HodioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

ASPAC win48%

Draw30%

Hodio win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ASPAC

Hodio

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Championnat National (Benin)

Last match: 11 Oct · Championnat National (Benin)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	ASPAC	3	+2	6
8	Hodio	3	+3	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aspac winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make ASPAC a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ASPAC v Hodio~~1.26 – 0.74

~~Form · Championnat National this season · since 26 Sept~~W2 D0 L1 · W1 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 5~~4 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ASPAC win	48%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Hodio win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
ASPAC or draw	78%	–	–
ASPAC clean sheet	48%	–	–
Hodio clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.7%

0123450 14.1 9.9 3.8 1 16.7 12.7 4.6 2 10.6 7.7 2.9 3 4.5 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ASPAC down, Hodio across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,750 Championnat National matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championnat National matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ASPAC at home: 2.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Hodio away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for ASPAC, 0.74 for Hodio. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HOD 0–0 ASP · ASP 5–1 HOD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Championnat National this season · since 26 Sept

ASPAC

WWL1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

HODIO

WDD3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buffles	3	+5	9
2	Cavaliers	3	+8	7
3	Bani Gansè	3	+3	7
4	ASPAC	3	+2	6
5	Panthères	3	+2	6
6	ASVO	3	+1	6
7	AS Cotonou	3	0	6
8	Hodio	3	+3	5
9	Coton Sport Ouidah	3	0	4
10	AS Sobemap	3	0	3
11	Ayema	3	−2	3
12	Djeffa	3	−2	3
13	Loto Popo	3	−3	3
14	Kraké	3	−4	3
15	Damissa	3	−1	2
16	Dragons	3	−3	1
17	Espoir Savalou	3	−3	1
18	Dynamo Abomey	3	−6	0