Zulte-Waregem W v Genk W prediction · Super League Women

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Zulte-Waregem W 1–2 Genk W ZULTE-WAREGEM W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zulte-Waregem W win~~38%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.604

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.646

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zulte-Waregem W win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Zulte-Waregem W was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–37
1′KICK-OFF Zulte-Waregem W v Genk W
5′Much as we predicted: Zulte-Waregem W was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–37
16′Genk W score on 15′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 16–21–63
16′We said Zulte-Waregem W at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–21–63
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Zulte-Waregem W 0–1 Genk W
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Zulte-Waregem W win: 38% at kick-off, 16% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Genk W win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Zulte-Waregem W win 16%)
25′Zulte-Waregem W find the net on 25′. 1–1. 1–1 · 36–30–35
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Zulte-Waregem W 1–1 Genk W
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Zulte-Waregem W win: 38% at kick-off, 36% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Genk W win 31%)
45′HALF-TIME Zulte-Waregem W 1–1 Genk W
46′SECOND HALF Zulte-Waregem W 1–1 Genk W
49′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–1 · 31–39–30
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Zulte-Waregem W win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
61′We said Zulte-Waregem W at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–48–26
65′We said Zulte-Waregem W at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–24
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Zulte-Waregem W win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
79′We said Zulte-Waregem W at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
84′We said Zulte-Waregem W at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–8
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Zulte-Waregem W win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
90′A goal for Genk W on 90′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
90′We said Zulte-Waregem W at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
90′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–5–95
90′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Zulte-Waregem W 1–2 Genk W
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Genk W win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
FTFULL TIME Zulte-Waregem W 1–2 Genk W
FTZulte-Waregem W 1–2 Genk W · Zulte-Waregem W win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Zulte-Waregem W just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Zulte-Waregem W 38%, draw 25%, Genk W 37%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Zulte-Waregem W v Genk WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Zulte-Waregem W win38%

Draw25%

Genk W win37%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zulte-Waregem W

Genk W

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · the Belgian Super League Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Genk W	5	−1	7
7	Zulte-Waregem W	5	−3	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zulte-waregem w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market39%

Us38%

~~Market~~39%

We make Zulte-Waregem W a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zulte-Waregem W v Genk W~~1.50 – 1.47

~~Form · Super League Women this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L4 · W2 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 7~~7 v 5

~~The market · Zulte-Waregem W win~~39% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zulte-Waregem W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zulte-Waregem W win	38%	39%	−1
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Genk W win	37%	35%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	57%	55%	+2
Both teams to score	59%	59%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	34%	+1
Zulte-Waregem W or draw	63%	65%	−2
Zulte-Waregem W clean sheet	24%	–	–
Genk W clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.6 7.5 5.6 2.8 1 7.6 11.3 8.0 4.0 2 5.8 8.2 5.9 2.9 3 2.9 4.1 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zulte-Waregem W down, Genk W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 659 Super League Women matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zulte-Waregem W at home: 2.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Genk W away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Zulte-Waregem W, 1.47 for Genk W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GEN 1–2 ZUL · ZUL 0–0 GEN · ZUL 3–3 GEN · ZUL 1–0 GEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League Women this season · since 5 Sept

ZULTE-WAREGEM W

LLLLW0–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–4 · 3–1

GENK W

LDLWW0–4 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Club Brugge W	6	+6	14
2	Anderlecht W	5	+8	12
3	OH Leuven W	5	+10	9
4	RAAL La Louviere W	6	−1	8
5	Genk W	5	−1	7
6	Standard Liege W	5	−7	6
7	Zulte-Waregem W	5	−3	3
8	Gent W	5	−12	0