Gent W v Standard Liege W prediction · Super League Women

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 21:02

Gent W 1–4 Standard Liege W STANDARD LIEGE W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Standard Liege W win~~56%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.293

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.372

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Standard Liege W win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Standard Liege W 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 21–23–56
1′KICK-OFF Gent W v Standard Liege W
30′Standard Liege W score on 30′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–15–79
30′We said Standard Liege W at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 0–1 · 6–15–79
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Gent W 0–1 Standard Liege W
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Standard Liege W win: 56% at kick-off, 79% now
32′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 6–15–79
36′We said Standard Liege W at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 5–15–80
45′HALF-TIME Gent W 0–1 Standard Liege W
47′SECOND HALF Gent W 0–1 Standard Liege W
56′Standard Liege W find the net on 55′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Gent W 0–2 Standard Liege W
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Standard Liege W win: 56% at kick-off, 97% now
57′We said Standard Liege W at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–2 · 0–3–97
60′A goal for Standard Liege W on 59′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Gent W 0–3 Standard Liege W
61′We said Standard Liege W at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
61′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
78′Gent W score on 77′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
78′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–1–99
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Gent W 1–3 Standard Liege W
84′Standard Liege W find the net on 84′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Gent W 1–4 Standard Liege W
85′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Gent W 1–4 Standard Liege W
FTGent W 1–4 Standard Liege W · Standard Liege W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Standard Liege W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gent W 21%, draw 23%, Standard Liege W 56%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Gent W v Standard Liege WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gent W win21%

Draw23%

Standard Liege W win56%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gent W

Standard Liege W

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · the Belgian Super League Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Standard Liege W	5	−7	6
8	Gent W	5	−12	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · standard liege w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

56% The market50%

Us56%

~~Market~~50%

We make Standard Liege W a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gent W v Standard Liege W~~1.02 – 1.83

~~Form · Super League Women this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D0 L5 · W2 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 0 v 6~~8 v 6

~~The market · Standard Liege W win~~50% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Standard Liege W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gent W win	21%	24%	−3
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Standard Liege W win	56%	50%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	54%	54%	0
Both teams to score	53%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	34%	−2
Gent W or draw	44%	50%	−6
Gent W clean sheet	17%	–	–
Standard Liege W clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 6.4 10.6 9.6 5.9 2.8 1 5.9 10.8 9.5 5.8 2.7 2 3.1 5.4 4.8 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gent W down, Standard Liege W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 659 Super League Women matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gent W at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Standard Liege W away: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Gent W, 1.83 for Standard Liege W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~STA 2–0 GEN · STA 2–1 GEN · GEN 1–2 STA · GEN 0–1 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League Women this season · since 5 Sept

GENT W

LLLLL1–6 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 1–3

STANDARD LIEGE W

LWLWL1–3 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 4–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Anderlecht W	6	+10	15
2	Club Brugge W	6	+6	14
3	OH Leuven W	6	+8	9
4	RAAL La Louviere W	6	−1	8
5	Genk W	5	−1	7
6	Standard Liege W	5	−7	6
7	Zulte-Waregem W	5	−3	3
8	Gent W	5	−12	0