Racing Mechelen v Tongeren prediction · Second Amateur Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Racing Mechelen 4–1 Tongeren RACING MECHELEN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Racing Mechelen win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.365

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Racing Mechelen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Racing Mechelen 51%, draw 26%, Tongeren 24%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Racing Mechelen v TongerenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Racing Mechelen win51%

Draw26%

Tongeren win24%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundVFV B · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Racing Mechelen

Tongeren

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Second Amateur Division - VFV B

Last match: 10 Oct · Second Amateur Division - VFV B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Racing Mechelen	7	+4	12
15	Tongeren	7	−3	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · racing mechelen winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Racing Mechelen a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Racing Mechelen v Tongeren~~1.62 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Second Amateur Division - VFV B this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 5~~5 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Racing Mechelen win

Published at 48%, 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Racing Mechelen win	51%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Tongeren win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Racing Mechelen or draw	76%	–	–
Racing Mechelen clean sheet	36%	–	–
Tongeren clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.8 7.0 3.8 1 11.3 12.0 5.9 2.1 2 9.3 9.3 4.7 3 5.0 5.0 2.6 4 2.1 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Racing Mechelen down, Tongeren across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,389 Second Amateur Division - VFV B matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second Amateur Division - VFV B matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.9% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.62 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Racing Mechelen at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Tongeren away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Racing Mechelen, 1.02 for Tongeren. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~RAC 1–1 TON · TON 1–1 RAC · RAC 3–0 TON · TON 1–2 RAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second Amateur Division - VFV B this season · since 5 Sept

RACING MECHELEN

DWLWDW0–0 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 5–1

TONGEREN

DDLDLD0–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tempo Overijse	7	+13	18
2	De Kempen	7	+11	15
3	Hades	7	+6	13
4	Wilrijk	7	+4	12
5	Racing Mechelen	7	+4	12
6	Eendracht Termien	8	+2	11
7	Rotselaar	7	0	10
8	Wellen	8	−2	10
9	Royal Antwerp II	7	0	9
10	Diegem Sport	7	−1	9
11	Bocholt	7	−6	8
12	Rupel Boom	7	−6	8
13	Sint-Truiden II	7	−2	7
14	Nijlen	7	−11	7
15	Tongeren	7	−3	5
16	Cappellen	7	−9	3