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Ninove v Mechelen II

Ninove

3–2Full time

Mechelen II

Second Amateur Division - VFV A · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Ninove 3–2 Mechelen II NINOVE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ninove win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.497

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ninove win43%

Draw20%

Mechelen II win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 18:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ninove winPublished 10 Oct 21:03

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Ninove a 43% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–2.0, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ninove win	43%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Mechelen II win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	78%	–	–
Both teams to score	76%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	59%	–	–
Ninove or draw	63%	–	–
Ninove clean sheet	14%	–	–
Mechelen II clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.1%

0123450 3.1 3.2 2.1 1 3.4 6.9 6.6 4.3 2.2 2 3.7 7.1 6.9 4.6 2.3 3 2.7 5.1 5.0 3.3 4 2.8 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ninove down, Mechelen II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,378 Second Amateur Division - VFV A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second Amateur Division - VFV A matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Ninove at home: 3.00 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Mechelen II away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.18 goals for Ninove, 2.00 for Mechelen II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Second Amateur Division - VFV A

NINOVE

LLDWWL0–3 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 4–2 · 7–4 · 0–5

MECHELEN II

LWLWWD1–2 · 4–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Eendracht Aalst	6	+8	16
2	Diksmuide	6	+4	13
3	Oostkamp	6	+4	11
4	Mechelen II	6	+3	10
5	Voorde Appelterre	6	+2	10
6	Zulte Waregem II	6	+4	8
7	Sparta Petegem	6	+1	8
8	Torhout	6	−1	8
9	RFC Wetteren	6	−3	8
10	VW Hamme	6	−4	8
11	FC Lebbeke	6	+1	7
12	Ninove	6	−5	7
13	Londerzeel	6	−1	6
14	KRC Gent	6	−1	5
15	Oudenaarde	6	−4	5
16	HO Kalken	6	−8	1