Stade Mouscronnois v Richelle United prediction · Second Amateur Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Stade Mouscronnois 6–2 Richelle United STADE MOUSCRONNOIS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stade Mouscronnois win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.446

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stade Mouscronnois are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stade Mouscronnois 46%, draw 24%, Richelle United 31%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Stade Mouscronnois v Richelle UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Stade Mouscronnois win46%

Draw24%

Richelle United win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundACFF · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stade Mouscronnois

Richelle United

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Second Amateur Division - ACFF

Last match: 10 Oct · Second Amateur Division - ACFF

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Stade Mouscronnois	8	+5	14
10	Richelle United	8	+2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stade mouscronnois winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Stade Mouscronnois a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stade Mouscronnois v Richelle United~~1.81 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in Second Amateur Division - ACFF this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 11~~4 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stade Mouscronnois win

Published at 43%, 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stade Mouscronnois win	46%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Richelle United win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Stade Mouscronnois or draw	69%	–	–
Stade Mouscronnois clean sheet	24%	–	–
Richelle United clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.8 5.2 4.1 2.0 1 6.6 10.5 7.1 3.5 2 6.3 8.8 6.3 3.1 3 3.8 5.3 3.8 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stade Mouscronnois down, Richelle United across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,535 Second Amateur Division - ACFF matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second Amateur Division - ACFF matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.9% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Stade Mouscronnois at home: 2.25 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 4). Richelle United away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Stade Mouscronnois, 1.44 for Richelle United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second Amateur Division - ACFF this season · since 6 Sept

STADE MOUSCRONNOIS

DWLWWW4–4 · 2–1 · 3–4 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 2–0

RICHELLE UNITED

LWLWDD2–3 · 4–1 · 1–5 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jette	8	+9	18
2	Crossing Schaerbeek	8	+8	17
3	SG-Tertre-Hautrage	8	+4	16
4	Stade Mouscronnois	8	+5	14
5	Braine	8	+4	14
6	Ganshoren	8	+6	13
7	AS Eupen II	8	+1	12
8	RUS Binche	8	−2	12
9	Stade Verviers	8	+4	11
10	Richelle United	8	+2	11
11	Huy	8	−3	11
12	Acren-Lessines	8	+2	10
13	La Calamine	8	+1	10
14	Ostiches	8	−1	10
15	Stockay-Warfusée	8	−3	9
16	Entité Manageoise	8	−8	5
17	Union Namur	8	−14	4
18	Aywaille	8	−15	1