SG-Tertre-Hautrage v Stockay-Warfusée prediction · Second Amateur Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:01

SG-Tertre-Hautrage 3–0 Stockay-Warfusée SG-TERTRE-HAUTRAGE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SG-Tertre-Hautrage win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.411

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SG-Tertre-Hautrage are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SG-Tertre-Hautrage 48%, draw 26%, Stockay-Warfusée 26%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on SG-Tertre-Hautrage v Stockay-WarfuséeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

SG-Tertre-Hautrage win48%

Draw26%

Stockay-Warfusée win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundACFF · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SG-Tertre-Hautrage

Stockay-Warfusée

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Second Amateur Division - ACFF

Last match: 11 Oct · Second Amateur Division - ACFF

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	SG-Tertre-Hautrage	8	+4	16
15	Stockay-Warfusée	8	−3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sg-tertre-hautrage winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make SG-Tertre-Hautrage a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SG-Tertre-Hautrage v Stockay-Warfusée~~1.61 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Second Amateur Division - ACFF this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 9~~4 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SG-Tertre-Hautrage win	48%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Stockay-Warfusée win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
SG-Tertre-Hautrage or draw	74%	–	–
SG-Tertre-Hautrage clean sheet	33%	–	–
Stockay-Warfusée clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.7 6.8 4.2 1 9.9 12.0 6.4 2.5 2 8.3 9.0 5.1 3 4.5 4.9 2.7 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SG-Tertre-Hautrage down, Stockay-Warfusée across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,538 Second Amateur Division - ACFF matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second Amateur Division - ACFF matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

SG-Tertre-Hautrage at home: 2.25 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 4). Stockay-Warfusée away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for SG-Tertre-Hautrage, 1.13 for Stockay-Warfusée. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second Amateur Division - ACFF this season · since 6 Sept

SG-TERTRE-HAUTRAGE

WDLLWW2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 4–1 · 4–2

STOCKAY-WARFUSÉE

DLDLWD1–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jette	8	+9	18
2	Stade Mouscronnois	9	+9	17
3	Crossing Schaerbeek	8	+8	17
4	SG-Tertre-Hautrage	8	+4	16
5	Braine	8	+4	14
6	Ganshoren	9	+5	13
7	La Calamine	9	+2	13
8	AS Eupen II	8	+1	12
9	RUS Binche	8	−2	12
10	Stade Verviers	8	+4	11
11	Ostiches	9	−1	11
12	Richelle United	9	−2	11
13	Huy	8	−3	11
14	Acren-Lessines	8	+2	10
15	Stockay-Warfusée	8	−3	9
16	Entité Manageoise	8	−8	5
17	Union Namur	9	−14	5
18	Aywaille	8	−15	1