Ostiches v Union Namur prediction · Second Amateur Division

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 03:22

Ostiches 3–0 Union Namur OSTICHES WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ostiches win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.310

Corrected on 20 Oct: this match was first graded on a score of 0–0; the score is now 3–0 and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ostiches are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ostiches 55%, draw 24%, Union Namur 22%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Ostiches v Union NamurBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ostiches win55%

Draw24%

Union Namur win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:30

RoundACFF · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ostiches

Union Namur

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Second Amateur Division - ACFF

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Ostiches	8	−1	10
17	Union Namur	8	−14	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ostiches winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Ostiches a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ostiches v Union Namur~~1.85 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Second Amateur Division - ACFF this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 10 v 4~~14 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ostiches win	55%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Union Namur win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Ostiches or draw	78%	–	–
Ostiches clean sheet	35%	–	–
Union Namur clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 6.5 5.4 3.2 1 9.6 11.1 5.6 2.0 2 9.1 9.3 5.0 3 5.6 5.7 3.0 4 2.7 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ostiches down, Union Namur across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,535 Second Amateur Division - ACFF matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second Amateur Division - ACFF matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.9% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ostiches at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Union Namur away: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Ostiches, 1.06 for Union Namur. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~OST 1–2 UNI · UNI 1–2 OST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second Amateur Division - ACFF this season · since 5 Sept

OSTICHES

DLDDLD2–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0

UNION NAMUR

LLDWLL0–1 · 0–5 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jette	8	+9	18
2	Crossing Schaerbeek	8	+8	17
3	SG-Tertre-Hautrage	8	+4	16
4	Stade Mouscronnois	8	+5	14
5	Braine	8	+4	14
6	Ganshoren	8	+6	13
7	AS Eupen II	8	+1	12
8	RUS Binche	8	−2	12
9	Stade Verviers	8	+4	11
10	Richelle United	8	+2	11
11	Huy	8	−3	11
12	Acren-Lessines	8	+2	10
13	La Calamine	8	+1	10
14	Ostiches	8	−1	10
15	Stockay-Warfusée	8	−3	9
16	Entité Manageoise	8	−8	5
17	Union Namur	8	−14	4
18	Aywaille	8	−15	1