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Westerlo U21 v Kortrijk U21

Westerlo U21

2–1Full time

Kortrijk U21

Reserve Pro League · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:00

Westerlo U21 2–1 Kortrijk U21 KORTRIJK U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kortrijk U21 win~~44%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.663

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.660

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kortrijk U21 win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Westerlo U21 v Kortrijk U21
2′Much as we predicted: Kortrijk U21 was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 34–22–44
20′A goal for Kortrijk U21 on 19′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–19–67
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Westerlo U21 0–1 Kortrijk U21
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Kortrijk U21 win: 44% at kick-off, 67% now
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Westerlo U21 1–1 Kortrijk U21
25′21′ and it is 1–1: Westerlo U21 have scored. 1–1 · 33–26–41
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Kortrijk U21 win: 44% at kick-off, 41% now
45′HALF-TIME Westerlo U21 1–1 Kortrijk U21
46′SECOND HALF Westerlo U21 1–1 Kortrijk U21
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Westerlo U21 2–1 Kortrijk U21
FTWesterlo U21 2–1 Kortrijk U21 · Kortrijk U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Westerlo U21 win35%

Draw21%

Kortrijk U21 win44%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kortrijk u21 winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

44% The market41%

Us44%

~~Market~~41%

We make Kortrijk U21 a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kortrijk u21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Westerlo U21 win	35%	34%	0
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Kortrijk U21 win	44%	41%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	69%	66%	+3
Both teams to score	68%	67%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	86%	84%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	48%	46%	+2
Westerlo U21 or draw	56%	59%	−3
Westerlo U21 clean sheet	16%	–	–
Kortrijk U21 clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.6%

0123450 2.8 5.8 5.2 3.3 1 5.1 8.6 8.2 5.2 2.5 2 4.0 7.2 6.7 4.3 2.1 3 2.2 4.1 3.8 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Westerlo U21 down, Kortrijk U21 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 740 Reserve Pro League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Reserve Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 4.11 goals a meeting; 8 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Westerlo U21 at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kortrijk U21 away: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Westerlo U21, 1.90 for Kortrijk U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.11

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 9

~~Both scored~~7 of 9

~~Last meetings~~WES 2–1 KOR · KOR 3–4 WES · WES 1–2 KOR · KOR 2–2 WES

Form · last six in Reserve Pro League

WESTERLO U21

WDWWLW4–1 · 2–2 · 7–0 · 4–2 · 1–3 · 3–0

KORTRIJK U21

WWWLWW5–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Waasland-Beveren U21	4	+10	9
2	Kortrijk U21	4	+4	9
3	RWDM U21	4	0	7
4	RAAL La Louviere U21	4	−2	7
5	Westerlo U21	3	+3	6
6	RFC Seraing Reserve U21	3	+2	6
7	K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21	3	+2	3
8	Francs Borains U21	3	−2	3
9	RFC de Liege U21	3	−6	3
10	Lierse K. U21	3	−5	1
11	Sp. Hasselt U21	4	−6	1