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RFC Seraing Reserve U21 v Lierse K. U21

RFC Seraing Reserve U21

3–1Full time

Lierse K. U21

Reserve Pro League · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

RFC Seraing Reserve U21 3–1 Lierse K. U21 RFC SERAING RESERVE U21 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said RFC Seraing Reserve U21 win~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.194

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said RFC Seraing Reserve U21 win at 64%.
1′KICK-OFF RFC Seraing Reserve U21 v Lierse K. U21
2′Little has changed for our model: RFC Seraing Reserve U21 64% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 64–18–18
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' RFC Seraing Reserve U21 0–1 Lierse K. U21
19′A goal for Lierse K. U21 on 18′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 37–24–40
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' RFC Seraing Reserve U21 win: 64% at kick-off, 37% now
25′We said RFC Seraing Reserve U21 at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–24–41
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' RFC Seraing Reserve U21 win: 64% at kick-off, 34% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Lierse K. U21 win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was RFC Seraing Reserve U21 win 34%)
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' RFC Seraing Reserve U21 1–1 Lierse K. U21
30′29′ and it is 1–1: RFC Seraing Reserve U21 have scored. 1–1 · 57–24–19
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' RFC Seraing Reserve U21 win: 64% at kick-off, 57% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' RFC Seraing Reserve U21 win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Lierse K. U21 win 19%)
45′HALF-TIME RFC Seraing Reserve U21 1–1 Lierse K. U21
46′SECOND HALF RFC Seraing Reserve U21 1–1 Lierse K. U21
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' RFC Seraing Reserve U21 2–1 Lierse K. U21
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' RFC Seraing Reserve U21 3–1 Lierse K. U21
FTRFC Seraing Reserve U21 3–1 Lierse K. U21 · RFC Seraing Reserve U21 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

RFC Seraing Reserve U21 win64%

Draw17%

Lierse K. U21 win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rfc seraing reserve u21 winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

64% The market–

Us64%

We make RFC Seraing Reserve U21 a 64% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–1.3, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
RFC Seraing Reserve U21 win	64%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Lierse K. U21 win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	54%	–	–
RFC Seraing Reserve U21 or draw	81%	–	–
RFC Seraing Reserve U21 clean sheet	28%	–	–
Lierse K. U21 clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%

0123450 2.1 3.1 1 5.7 6.8 4.5 2.0 2 6.8 8.6 5.6 2.5 3 5.7 7.2 4.7 2.1 4 3.7 4.7 3.1 5 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+RFC Seraing Reserve U21 down, Lierse K. U21 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 740 Reserve Pro League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Reserve Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

RFC Seraing Reserve U21 at home: 2.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lierse K. U21 away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.57 goals for RFC Seraing Reserve U21, 1.32 for Lierse K. U21. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LIE 0–2 RFC · RFC 4–1 LIE

Form · last six in Reserve Pro League

RFC SERAING RESERVE U21

LWWWLW1–2 · 6–0 · 5–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–1

LIERSE K. U21

LDLLDL1–2 · 2–2 · 2–4 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Waasland-Beveren U21	4	+10	9
2	Kortrijk U21	4	+4	9
3	RWDM U21	4	0	7
4	RAAL La Louviere U21	4	−2	7
5	Westerlo U21	3	+3	6
6	RFC Seraing Reserve U21	3	+2	6
7	K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21	3	+2	3
8	Francs Borains U21	3	−2	3
9	RFC de Liege U21	3	−6	3
10	Lierse K. U21	3	−5	1
11	Sp. Hasselt U21	4	−6	1