Home › Football › Reserve Pro League › RFC de Liege U21 v RAAL La Louviere U21

RFC de Liege U21 v RAAL La Louviere U21

RFC de Liege U21

1–1Full time

RAAL La Louviere U21

Reserve Pro League · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

RFC de Liege U21 1–1 RAAL La Louviere U21 RAAL LA LOUVIERE U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said RAAL La Louviere U21 win~~66%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.174

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.241

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said RAAL La Louviere U21 win at 66%.
1′Much as we predicted: RAAL La Louviere U21 was 66% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 17–16–66
1′KICK-OFF RFC de Liege U21 v RAAL La Louviere U21
20′20′ and it is 0–0: RFC de Liege U21 have scored. 0–0 · 18–20–62
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' RFC de Liege U21 1–0 RAAL La Louviere U21
26′We said RAAL La Louviere U21 at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 1–0 · 40–23–37
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' RAAL La Louviere U21 win: 66% at kick-off, 37% now
32′We said RAAL La Louviere U21 at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–0 · 41–24–34
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' RAAL La Louviere U21 win: 66% at kick-off, 34% now
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' RFC de Liege U21 win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was RAAL La Louviere U21 win 34%)
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' RFC de Liege U21 1–1 RAAL La Louviere U21
45′HALF-TIME RFC de Liege U21 1–1 RAAL La Louviere U21
46′SECOND HALF RFC de Liege U21 1–1 RAAL La Louviere U21
FTRFC de Liege U21 1–1 RAAL La Louviere U21 · RAAL La Louviere U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

RFC de Liege U21 win19%

Draw16%

RAAL La Louviere U21 win66%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · raal la louviere u21 winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

66% The market71%

Us66%

~~Market~~71%

We make RAAL La Louviere U21 a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–2.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · raal la louviere u21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
RFC de Liege U21 win	19%	14%	+5
Draw	16%	15%	+1
RAAL La Louviere U21 win	66%	71%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	80%	74%	+6
Both teams to score	71%	63%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	92%	86%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	62%	55%	+7
RFC de Liege U21 or draw	34%	29%	+5
RFC de Liege U21 clean sheet	6%	–	–
RAAL La Louviere U21 clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.6%

0123450 4.1 5.4 5.0 3.6 2.21 2.3 5.5 7.6 7.0 5.0 3.02 4.1 5.6 5.1 3.6 2.23 2.1 2.8 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+RFC de Liege U21 down, RAAL La Louviere U21 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 740 Reserve Pro League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Reserve Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 4.20 goals a meeting; 5 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

RFC de Liege U21 at home: 0.67 scored, 3.17 conceded a game (last 6). RAAL La Louviere U21 away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for RFC de Liege U21, 2.88 for RAAL La Louviere U21. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.20

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~RFC 2–3 RAA · RAA 1–2 RFC · RAA 3–1 RFC · RFC 0–5 RAA

Form · last six in Reserve Pro League

RFC DE LIEGE U21

LLLLLW1–5 · 0–3 · 0–7 · 1–2 · 0–6 · 1–0

RAAL LA LOUVIERE U21

WWWWLD3–0 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Waasland-Beveren U21	4	+10	9
2	Kortrijk U21	4	+4	9
3	RWDM U21	4	0	7
4	RAAL La Louviere U21	4	−2	7
5	Westerlo U21	3	+3	6
6	RFC Seraing Reserve U21	3	+2	6
7	K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21	3	+2	3
8	Francs Borains U21	3	−2	3
9	RFC de Liege U21	3	−6	3
10	Lierse K. U21	3	−5	1
11	Sp. Hasselt U21	4	−6	1