RAAL La Louviere U21 v Westerlo U21 prediction · Reserve Pro League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:01

RAAL La Louviere U21 2–1 Westerlo U21 WESTERLO U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Westerlo U21 win~~43%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.647

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.824

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Westerlo U21 win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Westerlo U21 was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 35–22–43
1′KICK-OFF RAAL La Louviere U21 v Westerlo U21
3′RAAL La Louviere U21 score on 3′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 57–20–23
3′We said Westerlo U21 at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–0 · 57–20–23
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' RAAL La Louviere U21 1–0 Westerlo U21
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Westerlo U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' RAAL La Louviere U21 win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Westerlo U21 win 23%)
20′RAAL La Louviere U21 find the net on 20′. 2–0. 2–0 · 80–12–8
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' RAAL La Louviere U21 2–0 Westerlo U21
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Westerlo U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 8% now
21′We said Westerlo U21 at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 2–0 · 80–12–8
40′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 2–0 · 85–10–5
41′We said Westerlo U21 at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 85–10–4
45′HALF-TIME RAAL La Louviere U21 2–0 Westerlo U21
46′SECOND HALF RAAL La Louviere U21 2–0 Westerlo U21
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Westerlo U21 win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
85′A goal for Westerlo U21 on 85′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 90–9–1
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' RAAL La Louviere U21 2–1 Westerlo U21
FTFULL TIME RAAL La Louviere U21 2–1 Westerlo U21
FTRAAL La Louviere U21 2–1 Westerlo U21 · Westerlo U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Westerlo U21 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: RAAL La Louviere U21 36%, draw 21%, Westerlo U21 43%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on RAAL La Louviere U21 v Westerlo U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

RAAL La Louviere U21 win36%

Draw21%

Westerlo U21 win43%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

RAAL La Louviere U21

Westerlo U21

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Reserve Pro League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Westerlo U21	4	+4	9
6	RAAL La Louviere U21	5	−2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · westerlo u21 winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

43% The market50%

Us43%

~~Market~~50%

We make Westerlo U21 a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · RAAL La Louviere U21 v Westerlo U21~~1.72 – 1.92

~~Form · Reserve Pro League this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D2 L1 · W3 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 9~~6 v 2

~~The market · Westerlo U21 win~~50% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Westerlo U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
RAAL La Louviere U21 win	36%	27%	+9
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Westerlo U21 win	43%	50%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	70%	71%	−1
Both teams to score	68%	71%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	87%	88%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	49%	53%	−4
RAAL La Louviere U21 or draw	57%	50%	+7
RAAL La Louviere U21 clean sheet	16%	–	–
Westerlo U21 clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.7 5.4 4.9 3.1 1 4.9 8.5 8.0 5.1 2.5 2 4.0 7.3 6.7 4.3 2.1 3 2.3 4.2 3.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+RAAL La Louviere U21 down, Westerlo U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 745 Reserve Pro League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Reserve Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

RAAL La Louviere U21 at home: 2.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Westerlo U21 away: 3.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for RAAL La Louviere U21, 1.92 for Westerlo U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~WES 0–3 RAA · RAA 4–1 WES · WES 3–1 RAA · RAA 5–0 WES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Reserve Pro League this season · since 28 Aug

RAAL LA LOUVIERE U21

WWLDD3–2 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 1–1

WESTERLO U21

WLWW4–2 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Waasland-Beveren U21	4	+10	9
2	Westerlo U21	4	+4	9
3	RFC Seraing Reserve U21	4	+4	9
4	Kortrijk U21	5	+3	9
5	RWDM U21	5	0	8
6	RAAL La Louviere U21	5	−2	8
7	K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21	4	+7	6
8	Francs Borains U21	4	−2	4
9	RFC de Liege U21	4	−6	4
10	Lierse K. U21	4	−7	1
11	Sp. Hasselt U21	5	−11	1